Category Archives: demonetization

भारतीयों को बेच दिया भारत सरकार ने ग्लोबल बैकों से

भारतीयों को बेच दिया भारत सरकार ने ग्लोबल बैकों से

भारतीयों को बेच दिया भारत सरकार ने

जैसा के अब सभी को समझ आ चुका होगा के वर्तमान भारत सरकार और उसे चलाने वालों का एकमात्र उद्देश ग्लोबल बैंकरों के समूह को लाभ पहुंचाना है|

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इस समय भारत सरकार की बागडोर ग्लोबल बैंकरो और चंद उद्योगपतियों के हाथों में है जिन का सर्वप्रथम उद्देश्य भारतीयों की बचत और कृय शक्ति को शुन्य के बराबर कर देना है.

साथ ही काले धन के नाम पर सभी की जमा पुंजि को बरबाद कर देना है जिस से की आप को अपनी हर जरूरत के लिये बैंकों से लोन लेना पडे, आप को शादी करनी है, छुट्टीयों में घूमने जाना है,  घर में रंग रोगन करवाना है तो आप को लोन लेना पड़ेगा..

इस के लिये यह भी जरूरी है की भारतीयों के पास मौजूद ज्यादा से ज्यादा धन को बरबाद कर देना, इस बात का  उदाहरण है 10 दिन रहते सरकार की ये घोषणा की एक व्यक्ति 5000 रुपये से ज्यादा की रकम नहीं जमा कर सकता है..    फिर 50 दिन कि अवधि के बाद रिजर्व बैंक में पैसे जमा करने का जो प्रावधान था उसे भी निरस्त कर दिया जबकि सरकार रिजर्व बैंक के द्वारा टैक्स काट कर भी पैसा लौटा सकती थी.. और अभी तक सरकार जनता को अपना ही पैसा बैंक से जरूरत के मुताबिक निकालने नहीं दे रही है.

सवाल यह उठता है कि क्याें नहीं जमा कर सकता है कोई अपना ही पैसा और क्यों नहीं निकाल सकता ?

परन्तु डिमोनिटाईजेशन की आड में भारतीयों को अपना बंधुआ मजदूर बनाने का खेल खेलने वाली ग्लोबल बैंको का मुख्य उद्देश्य भारतीयों का जमा पैसा बरबाद कर के उन्हें लोन और अपने बैंकिंग सिस्टम का गुलाम बनाना है .

क्या आपने कभी सोचा है  के आखिर क्यों बरबाद करने पे तुली है मोदी सरकार भारत वासियों की जीवन भर की जमा पुंजि ? भारतीय ऱूपये पर से दुनिया भर का भरोसा गिराकर क्या हासिल किया सरकार ने..भारत की आर्थिक संप्रभूता को पूरे विश्व के सामने उजागर किसके लिए किया गया..   किसको फायदा पहुंचाना चाहती है मोदी सरकार ?

ऱिलायंस ग्रुप को 25 से ज्यादा देशों में बडे बडे प्रोजेक्ट दिला दिये गये हैं…  इस समय पूरी दुनिया की मीडिया में अडाणी ग्रुप को अस्ट्रेलीया में कोल मांईस चलाने में वर्ल्ड बैंक के द्वारा अनैतिक सहयोग देने की जम कर आलोचना हो रही है परन्तु भारतीय मीडिया ने चुप्पी साध रखी है.. क्यों कि सच यही है की इस सरकार और इसके सहयोगीयों को ग्लोबल बैंकों ने दुनिया भर में लाखों करोड रुपये दे कर खरीद लिया है और जो वो चाह रहे हैं वो यह सरकार कर रही है.

ग्लोबल बैंकों के ही ईशारे पर सरकार जनता पर जोर जबरदस्ती से कैशलेस सिस्टम थोप रही है..इस के लिए वह लोगो को अपना ही पैसा अपनी मर्जी से निकालने पर प्रतिबंध लगा रखी है. . जिस से की लोग कैशलेस का ईस्तेमाल करने पे मजबूर हो जाए और ग्लोबल बैंकों की झोली घर बैठे भरती रहे.

कैशलेस सिस्टम में उपभोक्ता को जहाँ भी अपना डेबिट और क्रेडिट कार्ड स्वाइप करना होता है वहाँ गौरतलब है कि कार्ड द्वारा किये गए प्रत्येक लेन-देन पर बैंक शुल्क लेता है, और इस शुल्क का भुगतान उस व्यापारिक प्रतिष्ठान को भी करना होता है जिसने अपने यहाँ पीओएस टर्मिनल लगा रखा है।

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इस शुल्क को एमडीआर (merchant discount rate) के नाम से जाना जाता है। एमडीआर का एक हिस्सा उस बैंक के पास जाता है जिसने उपभोक्ता कार्ड जारी किया है, एक हिस्सा उस बैंक के पास जाता है जिसने संबंधित प्रतिष्ठान के पीओएस टर्मिनल को स्थापित किया है, जबकि एक हिस्सा भुगतान माध्यमों (payment getways) को जाता है, जैसे वीज़ा (visa) रूपे (rupay) और मास्टरकार्ड (mastercard) इत्यादि ग्लोबल बैंकों को.

आप सभी को ये भी को ये जान कर भी हैरानी होगी की वर्ल्ड बैंक भी ग्लोबल बैंकों के समूह  का बनाया हुआ एक छलावा है जो असल में एक  प्राइवेट बैंक से ज्यादा कुछ नहीं है और जिसने वर्ल्ड बैंक नाम के छलावे के साथ दुनिया भर के देशों में काम करने की मान्यता ले रखी है

देशों की इकोनोमी को अपने हिसाब से प्रभावित करना इस का काम है  ग्रीस, पेरू, जिम्बाबवे जैसे देशों को कर्जदार आैर कंगाल बनाने में वर्ल्ड बैंक का ही हाथ था

आप अपने डेबिट और क्रेडिट कार्ड को पलट कर देखें तो वहां आप VISA, MASTER CARD, DINERS CLUB, AMERICAN EXPRESS जैसे नाम और लोगो पायेंगे, ये सभी इन ग्लोबल बैंकों की संस्थाएं हैं.. जान लें की ATM से आप के द्वारा 100 रू निकालने पर भी इन विदेशी बैंकों को कमीशन प्राप्त होता है .

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यही कारण है की ये विदेशी बैंकों के समूह और वर्ल्ड बैंक चाहते हैं कि सभी के सभी भारतीयों को बैंकिंग सिस्टम के अधीन ले आया जाए.

यानि आप के द्वारा किए गये हर टरांजैक्शन पर ग्लोबल बैंकों को कमीशन प्राप्त होगा .. हमारी सरकार को इन ग्लोबल बैंकों को इतनी चिंता है की यह हमें इनका कैशलेस सिस्टम यूज करने के लिये जो डिस्काउंट दे रही है वह सब्सिडी के रूप में ग्लोबल बैंकों के खाते में जमा कर रही है.

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एक तरफ सरकार हमसे रसोई गैस की सब्सिडी छिनती है दूसरी तरफ स्वदेशी का राग अलापने वाली सरकार विदेशी बैंकों को हमारी सब्सिडी का पैसा पहुंचाने में शर्म भी नहीं महसूस करती है.

आखिर शर्म भी क्यों करे आखिर पैसा पहुंचाने के बदले सरकार चलाने वालों को भी पैसा मिल रहा है और इस मामले में तो जिंदगी भर मिलता रहेगा .

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Cashless Monetary System also means Absolute Power over you

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Indian Government must bring legal clarity to demonetization-masked compulsory deposits

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/12/02/indian-government-must-bring-legal-clarity-to-demonetization-masked-compulsory-deposits

 

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Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

Woman removes clothes at RBI, India

Demonetization fallout: Woman removes clothes at RBI gate

Indian Government once again retracted to its own assurances to public on Demonetization

Since the last day to exchange currency notes with banks has passed, the people are turning to RBI (as it was told by the govt) to get the new notes in lieu of their old. Unable to get a few junked currency notes exchanged, a frustrated poor woman became topless in front of RBI regional office in New Delhi.

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The woman, who was with her child, was in tears when turned away by guards after repeated request to exchange her junked notes. In protest she sat in front of the RBI entrance gate.

When the guards tried to forcefully move her away from the entrance, the woman in disgust took off her clothes and sat topless in front of the iron gate, stunning the onlookers as well as the security personnel.

Later, the RBI guards called the police and she along with her kid was bundled away to police station, thus ending the surcharged drama at the high profile building which is just a stone’s throw away from the Parliament House.

Many others including retired and aged persons who have come to exchange their old notes said the government should not go back on the promise made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his November 8 address to the nation that old notes could be exchanged at the select RBI offices till March 31.

A day later Members of All Democratic Women’s Association (AIDWA) staged a protest before RBI regional office on Street here, registering their anger over theincident.

The women protesters, numbering around 35, raised slogans against RBI and attracting a crowd of passersby.

 “This incident exposed how people, especially women were suffering due to and lack of in banks and ATMs. We have conducted a survey which reveals that ATMs in many areas are lying without for a long time,” said general secretary Asha Sharma.
Central Governments key ally Shiv Sena described it as the “worst regime in 10,000 years” and said the BJP leaders are living in fool’s paradise to think that the exercise would eradicate black money after putting even women to great difficulty.
Shiv Sena said the plight of the hapless mother looked like a “government sponsored Nirbhaya tragedy.
“If the government cannot see and understand the suffering of this woman, then such a ruthless and deaf regime would not have been in existence in the last 10,000 years,” the Sena said in an editorial in party mouthpiece ‘Saamana’.
Read further:

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Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

 

Demonetization: A monumental disaster

James Wilson is a Member of the Mullaperiyar Special Cell, Government of Kerala, India. Who is a civil engineer by profession has presented an extremely detailed and meticulous calculations and inferences on the Demonetization of Indian Currencies.

Just go through the full article brought here , for the  knowledge of the subject is best expressed through a clear and concise presentation by Mr. James Wilson.

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A monumental disaster in offing!

Currency in Circulation 


High denomination notes of ₹500 & ₹1000, which is 86.4% of the total currency in circulation ceased to be legal tender due to the demonetisation. RBI denotes these demonetised notes as “Specified Bank Notes” (SBN). As per RBI Annual Report 2015-2016, as of 31/03/2016, the value of the total SBN is ₹14.18 lakh crores. Volume wise it consists of 15707 million ₹500 notes and 6326 million ₹1000 notes, ie, a total of 22033 million notes. Meanwhile, the total currency in circulationvalue wise increased to ₹17.975 Lakh crores (4/11/2016) from ₹16.415 lakh crores (31/03/2016)


Exact information of the amount of SBN as on 8/11/16 is now in public domain, thanks to a question-answer in the Rajya Sabha, which shows 17165 million pieces of ₹500 (₹8.582 lakh crores)and 6858 million pieces of ₹1000 (₹6.858 lakh crores) in circulation (Total Value: ₹15.44 lakh crores Total Volume:24023 million pieces) [So my assumptions in my earlier post  of value of 15.5 lakh crores and volume of 24000 million is almost in the target]. To print and replace 24023 million (24.023 billion) notes is an enormous challenge considering this sheer volume of notes to be printed and capacity of our printing presses.




Capacity of Printing Presses


How can RBI achieve this target with resources at their disposal? 


How much time RBI will take for to print and replace SBN with new notes? 

To understand this, in a pure resources management perspective, we have to examine the output capacity of our currency note printing presses. We have two currency printing presses under Security Printing and Minting Corporation of India Limited (SPMCIL), one at Nashik in Maharastra and the other one in Dewas in Madhya Pradesh. Nashik Press was established in 1928 and Dewas was in 1974. Also two more modern currency printing press were added later to augment the printing capacity, one in Mysore in Karnataka and the other at Salboni in West Bengal under the Bharatiya Reserve Bank Note Mudran Private Limited (BRBNMPL), which were established by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in 1996.


First look at the capacities of Nashik & Dewas presses under SPMCIL. I have relied the Annual Report of the SPMCIL as well as a presentation available on the internet by the Currency Management Wing of the RBI. From the above records, it is inferred that Nashik Press capacity is 5800 million notes per year and Dewas capacity is 2620 million pieces. 


Meanwhile, BRBNMPL’s Mysore & Salboni together can print 16000 million notes in 2 shifts in a year. See the screenshot of BRBNMPL website. So all these four presses can together print 24420 million currency notes in a year and this is closer to the supply RBI getting for last 3 years too. 


So all four presses together having a printing capacity of 66.90 million/day. If we take Mysuru and Salboni alone, this will be 43.84 million/day.


Please note that latter in this discussion, it is using billion instead of million as the volume unit since I made references to the statement given by RBI in billions. 

  • For your understanding please note that:

            1 billion = 1000 million = 100 crores


Printing aborad is out of question

My next exercise was to understand whether we can outsource this currency printing to any high quality security presses abroad. That research lead me to the Report of Committee on Public Undertakings (2012-13) which deliberates “outsourcing of printing of currency notes” as recommendation serial no.14. Selected extract from the above report is reproduced here:


“The Committee also find it pertinent to point out that during printing of currency notes worth 1 lakh crores in three different countries, there was always a grave risk of unauthorized printing of excess currency notes, which would have been unaccounted money. The Committee simply wonder how come a decision was taken to have the currency notes printed by above mentioned companies in three different countries. Logically speaking since all the said three countries are well developed, each country certainly had the capability of undertaking the entire printing assignment. In any case the very thought of India’s currency being printed in three different countries is alarming to say the least. During that particular fateful period our entire economic sovereignty was at stake.


The Committee is concerned of the grave implications of such a move as it has wider ramifications in a multi faceted angle. The danger of destabilizing the economy by the agencies of authorities who could have misused our security parameters vis-à-vis printing of currency notes, the use of such notes which could have been printed in excess could easily have fallen in the hands of unscrupulous elements such as terrorists, extremists and other economic offenders, looms large in our minds. The Committee expresses its strong resentment over such an unprecedented, unconventional and uncalled for measure. The Committee while recommending that SPMCIL be strengthened to undertake the printing and minting of the required currency notes/coins fervently emphasise that outsourcing of printing of currency notes/minting coins should never be resorted to in the future.”


Reply of the Government

Since corporatisation, SPMCIL and BRBNMPL have been meeting the requirement of coins and currency and no import has been resorted to. The concerns and recommendations of the Committee have been carefully noted for future guidance.

[Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs]

( O.M. No.3/8/09-SPMC dated 3rd January, 2013 )”

So this assurance rules out the very question of outsourcing of the currency printing abroad. I don’t think RBI will violate an assurance given to the Committee of Public Undertakings of the Parliament. Hence RBI has to depend on the four presses in our country to meet this enormous demand.


Comparison with demonetisation done in 1977-78


In this context, we have to note that during the demonetisation exercise in 1977-78 only less than 5% of the high value notes were demonetised. It is also important to note that ₹100 note, which was 50.1% of the total currency in circulation was not demonetised during 1977-78. Contrary to the above, this time RBI and Government decided to demonetise ₹500 note, which consists of 47.8% of the value of the total currency in circulation. They also demonetised ₹1000 notes in circulation, thus made 86.4% of value of total currency in circulation redundant, which choked and paralysed the entire cash based economy with a whimsical direction overnight!


₹2000 note – a short shrift solution

Now look at the ₹1000 notes, volume wise its quantity is 6858 million notes. If convert the entire ₹1000 notes to ₹2000 notes, keeping the same value, then the volume will be halved to 3429 million notes to facilitate quick printing and disposal. But there is a catch, RBI has to tweak the ratio between ₹500 and ₹2000 to provide easy change and mobility between these two notes. So obviously, there should be less  volume of ₹2000 notes and more volume of ₹500 notes is mandated to keep the equilibrium of the system. For the time being, let us assume that RBI has gone with a complete swap of ₹1000 with ₹2000 notes totally discarding the mobility in the system.Definitely this is a short shrift exercise without considering the much needed mobility and velocity of the demand of thes various denominations of the currency notes in circulation. In that scenario too, RBI has to print at least 20594 million notes (17615 million ₹500 &+ 3429 million ₹2000) in a short span of time.


Higher denominations will aid hoarding – RBI Study


The elimination of ₹1000 note and introduction of ₹2000 note is really perplexing and the RBI’s explanation made themselves a joke. In this context, invite your attention to RBI Study No. 39 “Modelling Currency Demand in India: An Empirical Study” to see how RBI and Government of India all along resisted to issue high denomination notes even when warranted in a short time to meet the inflation to control, considering the chances of this high denomination currency will be used for hoarding purpose by the black money holders.

The irony is now a high value currency note of ₹2000 is introduced in the guise of controlling hoarding of the very black money, but at the end of the day help the hoarders in transporting and hoarding! This haste and irrational decision was taken without considering the statistical principles of distribution of various denominations in the currency in circulation and also fully side lining the prudent decision to eliminate the chances of hoarding. This short shrift route of going for ₹2000 by RBI without considering any of the above consequences into account and only taking the ease of printing, is a telling reflection of how an Institution like RBI let itself to erode its independent stature to please the political masters!

Printing target – An estimation

I discarded here the essential tweak required for maintain the equilibrium between ₹500 and ₹2000 notes and also the increase of currency required to meet the demand of cash in the economy in the coming months till this disaster is mitigated. Many of Government sympathisers may definitely point that the entire ₹15.44 lakh crores of SBN will not return into the system and there is no need to replace the entire currency. My opinion is that these two factors balance and neutralise each other. Hence for the time being, I decide to go ahead with the figure of 20594 million new notes as our target for printing.

In the initial days, the WhatsApp army were busy in forwarding daring claims that only 50% of the SBN will return into the system. Even our Attorney General told to the Supreme Court that RBI & Government expects only a maximum of ₹12 lakh crores of SBN will be return to the system. Today we are hearing from the media quoting Ministry of Finance sources that around ₹14 lakh crores worth SBN is already returned to the system. Remember that we are still 13 more days away from the date set by Government to deposit the SBN at banks. So its time for RBI & Government to eat the humble pie. It is important to understand that the above cut-off date will not set free RBI’s responsibility to exchange the rest of the currency in circulation at their counters, it only limits the option of depositing/exchanging at banks. That is a detailed matter as it entangled in legal provisions and other issues and hence will be discussed in a future post.


Demonetisation Planning – Rajan or Patel?


To understand the currency printing schedule, first see the letter of transmittal dated 29th August 2016 of the RBI Annual Report 2015-16 signed by Former Governor Raghuram G. Rajan. Kindly note the above date, it is very important. We know that the present Governor Urjit R. Patel assumed office on 4th September 2016.

Now look at the same Annual Report again. Look at Table VIII.4, “Indent and Supply of Bank Notes by BRBNMPL & SPMCIL”. Look at the indent for the year 2016-17, RBI has given an indent for 5725 million ₹500 notes & 2200 million ₹1000 notes along with other lower denomination currency notes. If there was a plan in advance to demonetise these denominations, then why did RBI print and disburse such large quantities of SBN in to circulation? This is nothing but sheer wastage of exchequer’s money.

Moreover, if RBI had such an advance plan to replace the above SBN, they should have devoted their time and energy to print lower denominations notes instead of SBN. Hence it is beyond doubt that the entire demonetisation plan was come into picture after Urjit Patel taken charge. The new denomination note of ₹2000 bear the signature of the new Governor Patel, not of Governor Rajan, which also another explicit evidence to prove that these notes were introduced after Governor Rajan left RBI.

When new currency printing started?


So what is the possible date of starting the new currency printing, yes, after this so called meticulous planning, selling an amazing idea and getting a nod from high echelons to go ahead with the ‘surgical strike’? Many theories are floating in the air about this meticulous planning in the initial days by a certain section of cheerleader media and court jester journalists. I am not ready to buy any of those theories. We learnt from media reports that the printing of the new notes were confined to RBI’sBRBNMPL presses at Mysuru & Salboni. Neither Nashik nor Dewas of SPMCIL were on the loop, may be due to the secrecy of the mission involved. Another reason may be both these presses were already assigned with printing of the lower denomination notes (from ₹100 downward), which is already intended in huge quantities by the annual indent of RBI for FY 2016-17.


Considering all these constraints, let me put a rational date before you considering the resources planning angle. RBI disclosed that they have 2473.2 million ₹2000 in stock for disposal as of 8/11/2016 in response to a RTI query. With the printing capacity of 43.84 million/month of Mysore & Salboni together in 2 shifts, it will take 57 days to print the 2473.2 million notes, that means it started on 12th September 2016. Take another possibility, that RBI took an effort to enhance printing to 3 shifts from 2 shifts, then they can print 65.76 million/month, ie, means it will took 38 days, that means printing started on 1st October 2016 only.


I was really shocked to find that there was not a single ₹500 note was with RBI when they unleashed this demon over the nation! That means RBI unleashed demonetisation with just 32% of the total SBN in circulation, that too a less mobile ₹2000 note stock! They themselves will be aware that within the 50 days window period, they can’t print the rest of the SBN too!

Disbursal of Currency

Then, I look for patterns of disbursal of currency at various dates, which was inferred from the data provided through the press releases by RBI. Look at the table below:

We can see that there was a substantial increase of disbursal of currency between 27/11/06 and 05/12/16 from ₹12589 crores/day to ₹20548 crores/day, this is definitely due to the disbursement of salaries on the first of December. Thereafter, the disbursal drying up substantially in the succeeding period to ₹16000 crores/day. If we take the entire 31 days of demonetisation, the average daily release from 10/11/2016 to 10/12/2016 is ₹14871 crores/day. If the money is disbursed in the above daily average rate, between next 20 days a further ₹2,97,420 crores can be disbursed. Hence Government may be able to disburse a total of ₹7,58,420 crores or a maximum of ₹8,00,000 crores by 30/12/2016. That means just 52% of the total SBN going to be disbursed to us. But even this quantity is doubtful with the present printing woes, which is going to be examined in the subsequent paragraphs.

There is some serious cash delivery issue in the system due to inferior planning and poor judgement from the part of RBI as well as Finance Ministry. Otherwise what is the justification of various new restrictions unleashed day to day basis by RBI without respecting the notification dated 8/11/2016? It is quite depressing to see that even the address to the nation by the Prime Minister is not honoured!

RBI deleting information – why?

While looking for these data, I met with a really shocking finding. RBI published a transcript of the statement given by R. Gandhi, Deputy Governor on 07/12/2016 at its webstie under the title “press releases”. But later it is seen as purged from the RBI website! Meantime, the video of the press conference is still available in the internet (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IuSzeRX31ms). This really made me curious. What information was there in the above transcript, which forced RBI to delete it from the website, even sacrificing the very institutional credibility? What is there to hide from the public which was not there in the full video coverage of 5th bi-monthly monetary policy press conference 2016-17? Interestingly the RBI which deleted the transcript of R. Gandhi forget to wipe out that from the cache, so one of my friend in twitter grabbed the information from there and shared with me. See that transcript of R. Gandhi here!

It is quite an irony that the very RBI, which now exhorting us to go cashless by embracing digital mode of payment, did not even know the primary lessons of digital literacy of how to purge a document from their system! Look at the highlighted information – this is not available in the video but provided in the transcript, which RBI deleted. What is the relevance of this information? It cna lead you to the printing volume of new notes disbursed by RBI as of 10/12/2016, which they refuse to divulge so far. 

Disbursal of currency denomination wise

Look at the total value of the lower denomination notes of 19.1 million disbursed by RBI from the above. It comes only to ₹1.059 lakh crores! That means the higher denominations notes are ₹3.81 lakh crores minus ₹1.059 lakh crores = ₹2.75 lakh crores. As RBI has not given the volume of high denomination notes, I was not able to decipher the possible numbers of them.

But in the next press conference on 13/12/2016, RBI provided the numbers to decipher the new currency notes in the system. Look at the statement of R. Gandhi, Dy Governor.

Here Gandhi claimed that 19.1 billion notes of lower denomination on 5/12/16 was increased to 20.1 billion on 10/12/16 meanwhile claimed that RBI disbursed 1.7 billion higher denomination notes of ₹2000 & ₹500 notes. As the amount of the total cash disbursed is ₹4.61 lakh crores, it turned out to be a simple mathematical problem to solve. There is a limit for the lower denominations to fluctuate, as we know the denomination wise quantity of 19.1 billion notes in circulation. Then if 19.1 billion lower denominations increased to 20.1 billion notes, two borderline scenarios emerges:

  • If the entire 1 billion volume increase are of ₹100 notes, then total value will be increased by ₹1.159 lakh crores
  • if the entire 1 billion volume increase are of ₹10 notes, then total value will be increased by ₹1.069 lakh crores.
  • That simply means that the value of higher denominations notes will be in a range of ₹3451 crores to ₹3541 crores.
  • This means if the entire higher denomination notes are of  ₹2000 and its volume will fluctuate between 1.7 billion to 1.8 billion.

If Gandhi would not have given the exact volume wise distribution of each lower denominations in that 07/12/2016 in the transcript, we will not be able to emulate these scenarios. My strong feeling is that it is the very reason why RBI later deleted the said transcript from its website.

You can’t introduce more than a couple of million ₹500 notes into this equation, in that case the volume of higher denomination notes will go up from the 1.7 billion! Even after a month after unleashing the demonetisation on our heads RBI was not able to disburse any substantial quantity of ₹500 notes in the circulation, which are the most essential denomination for the reasons I cited in my previous blog post. That is why we are not seeing these notes in the market and feel the burn of cash crunch so badly.  Its shame on RBI to flash a couple of million notes of this ₹500 notes in metro cities and major urban centres for a limited purpose of optics management before the 24×7 electronics media and to flaunt in WhatsApp forwards & re-tweets on social media! It is really sad to see that a reputed professional organisation like RBI is letting down the nation with these type of cheap tricks of optics management rather meeting the pressing demands!

Lower denomination disbursal – a record??

Gandhi told on 7/12/2016 press conference that RBI has provided 19.1 billion lower denomination notes after demonetisation, which is a record as it is more than what reserve bank provided in last 3 years to the system. If we look at indent & supply for last FY year, from the above table, we can see that around 16 billion lower denomination notes were printed then. This FY year also RBI given an indent to print 16.6 billion lower denomination notes and if the presses print according to their capacity, there will be new 12.5 billion notes till 10/12/2016. Along with this quantity, there will be soiled notes which are being collected to dispose during this FY(Kindly note that, last year alone around 13 billion lower denomination soiled notes were disposed off), which are also pushed back to circulation as we see lots of old soiled notes back. Also note that the total number of lower denomination notes in circulation as  on 31/03/2016 was 56.6 billion. It is interesting to note that Gandhi never claimed RBI has printed 19.1 billion notes, instead he only made a tall claim that these notes were a record volume! Media never asked any questions to him and Gandhi barked in glory! I am sorry to say that I can’t digest this all-time record claim of attention diversion by twisting the facts!

Where is that ₹500 note?

Let us come back to the figure of 1.7 billion high denomination notes disbursed by 10/12/2016. This information is quite perplexing when we compare the printing press capacities. We have seen that RBI had a stock of 2.473 billion ₹2000 notes as on 8/11/2016 itself. So if these printing presses working at least 2 shifts/day, there would have been another 1.4 billion pieces of ₹2000 & ₹500 with RBI by 10/12/2016 (32 days x 43.84 = 1403 million). To completely replace, the ₹1000 notes by ₹2000 notes, RBI needed to print 3.429 – 2.473 = 0.956 billion pieces. So RBI should have by 10/12/2016 printed the entire ₹2000 notes to replace the ₹1000 notes. I hope and pray that RBI did not go ahead with another short shrift solution of printing more ₹2000 notes to replace ₹500 notes after done with ₹1000 notes, which will completely disrupt the mobility and balance of the currency in circulation. Why RBI holding the rest 1.729 billion of ₹2000 notes (3.429-1.7=1.729) without disbursing to public?

Also from the above we can find that a quantity of 0.444 billion ₹500 notes (1.4-0.956=0.444) printed after are with RBI, but a few millions are only disbursed to public. It is really perplexing that why RBI is not distributing these ₹500 notes in substantial quantities? This is quite baffling because RBI through its press releases informed that they disbursed ₹500 notes with the following series numbers:

·       without inset

·       with E as inset

·       with L as inset,

·       E and star as inset and

·       with R as inset.

This indicates that various printing presses are put to the task of printing the ₹500 notes, but as we are not seeing much of ₹500 notes in circulation, it is feared that some issues crop up during its printing. Recollect the media reports of two different design ₹500 notes crop up and RBI’s bizarre explanation. RBI informed that up to 10/12/16, they have disbursed 1.7 billion high denomination notes. This will definitely be 1.7 billion ₹2000 notes and a few million ₹500 notes, as I shown above. Also relying above printing calculations & RTI disclosure, we can very well conclude that RBI may have a stock of at least 1.7429 billion ₹2000 notes and  0.444 billion ₹500 notes as of 10/12/2016.

In the above context, let me put some questions to RBI:

  • Why you are not disbursing sufficient ₹500 notes to circulation to ease the mobility crisis?
  • Why you are not disbursing enough ₹2000 notes and imposing unreasonable restrictions on withdrawal for our money deposited in banks? 
  • Inform us whether the above stock of  notes is having any relation with the hoarding of huge quantity of currency notes seized from various parts of the country?
  • Exact quantity of ₹2000 notes and ₹500 notes printed and disbursed so far  
  • Or your printing systems faced any unexpected failure & you are struck?
  • Exact schedule and output of printing of various denomination of notes at various presses under RBI and SPMCIL

When we will get back our currency?


Now we have to consider when we will get back the ₹500 notes demonetised from the system back. As we seen from above that 0.444 billion ₹500 notes would have been printed up to 10/12/16, then how much time RBI will take to print remaining 16.721 billion pieces (17.165-0.444=16.721).

In this context, I am giving you three possible scenarios considering the printing capacity of our four currency printing presses. I have not considered certain constraints here, like additional skilled manpower needed to introduce a 3rd shift for a prolonged period, raw material supply constraints, machinery maintenance, forced plus routine shutdowns and other surprises which can crop up anytime. Then I have not considered additional output (?) possible with the reduced size of new notes too as someone argues. I gone ahead with a perfect printing mechanism with sufficient manpower and resources at disposal. So take this estimation and earliest possible dates with a pinch of salt.

First Scenario

Mysuru & Salboni (3 shifts/day) AND Nashik & Dewas

@88.82 million/day needs 188 days – 16thJune 2017

Second Scenario

Mysuru & Salboni (3 shifts/day) AND Nashik

@ 81.64 million/day needs 204 days – 2nd July 2017

Third Scenario

Mysuru, Salboni (2 shifts/day) & Nashik

@ 59.73 million/day needs 280 days – 16thSeptember 2017

These are the earliest possible dates to replace SBN with new currency in a pure resources management angle.

Looking at the above earliest dates will make anyone shudder, I don’t know when the normalcy of the system can be restored! Remember, our Prime Minister on 8/11/2016 sought us a couple of days to restore the normalcy  This will give you an idea about the planning prowess of the mandarins in RBI and Finance Ministry. Ask ourselves whether we have fallen into a rabbit hole? We Indians still believe in magic and we bear all subjugation as our bad karma or destiny. But here no magic wand is left to create miracles, we are destined to silently suffer this onslaught for half a dozen months too.

Estimation of possible return of SBN

Now look at the way SBN is coming back to the banks. This table extracts information from various press conferences.

This table will explain you why Government & RBI are getting panic and imposing new restrictions like deposits up to ₹5000 to non-KYC accounts and questioning people depositing more than ₹5000 into their KYC accounts. Why we are treated like criminals? Under which legal or constitutional provision Government and RBI arbitrarily gives this police power to the bank authorities to abuse us?

This is becoming a theatre of absurd when the very Government, who is reluctant to reveal to public the names of celebrities and big shots who keep thousands of crores of black money abroad arm twisting the common man and honest tax payers!. Tell us what is the crime committed by us? Are you intimidating and insulting us for believing the Prime Ministers address to the nation on 8/11/2016??

Look at various possibilities on 30/12/2016 (20 days from 10/12/2016)

  • With an average daily inflow of ₹15000 crores, entire SBN valued ₹15.44 lakh crores will return to banks
  • With an average daily inflow of ₹12800 crores, total SBN valued ₹15 lakh crores will return to banks
  • With an average daily inflow of ₹10300 crores, total SBN valued ₹14.5 lakh crores will return to banks

My strong belief is that SBN valued around ₹15 lakh crores will most probably return to the system, rest of the SBN will be trapped in Nepal & Bhutan and other countries for the time being. If ₹15 lakh crores of SBN return, then it will totally shatter and tear away all mighty claims by the Government and RBI that a maximum of ₹11 lakh crores to ₹12 lakh crores of SBN will only return to banks.

Then the entire demonetisation hungama will fall apart as a monumental disaster, yep, its now just a matter of time.. Now the deadline set by our Prime Minister in his 08/11/2016 speech has already expired.


 The above presentation is the hard work of Mr. Member of the Mullaperiyar Special Cell, Government of Kerala. A civil engineer by profession. Associated with construction & management of various hydro electric projects & thermal power projects of KSEB Ltd between 1994-2001. Since 2001, shfited to water resources management & inter state water disputes with special emphasis on the techno-legal aspects. Now working in a consultant role to provide the techno-legal inputs on various inter state water dispute issues & water policy related matters to Kerala State Government.

Via

https://decipherdemon.blogspot.in/2016/12/a-monumental-disater-in-offing.html?m=1

Read further:

The Trouble With India’s Demonetization Gamble

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/28/the-trouble-with-indias-demonetization-gamble

Demonetization and Freakonomics

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/demonetization-and-freakonomics

Indian Government has No Clues of Black Money in India

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/12/16/indian-government-has-no-clues-of-black-money-in-india

Cashless Monetary System means Absolute Power over you

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/12/17/cashless-monetary-system-means-absolute-power-over-you

India Came First

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/12/19/india-came-first

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Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

Where you can deposit Old Currencies after 50 Days

Where you can deposit your Old Currencies After 50 days

rbi-reu

The central government of India will stop the deposit of old notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 at banks and post offices from 30 December 2016.

However, citizens can still exchange their old notes for new ones at the offices of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The apex bank announced that citizens can deposit their old notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 at the RBI counters.

Citizens can still deposit their old notes in their bank accounts via RBI and withdraw money under the guidelines issued by the government.


Here is a list of RBI offices in six metro cities that people can visit to exchange their old notes for new ones:


Bengaluru:

Reserve Bank of India

10/3/8, Opposite Saint Martha’s Hospital,

Nrupathunga Road, Ambedkar Veedhi,

Sampangi Rama Nagar,

Bengaluru, Karnataka 560001

Office Timings:

Monday to Friday : 10 am to 5:30 pm

Saturday : 10 am to 1:45 pm


Chennai:

Reserve Bank of India,

Fort Glacis, Rajaji Salai,

P.B. No.40,

Chennai-600 001.

Office Timings:

Monday to Friday : 9:45 am to 4:45 pm

Saturday : 9:45 am to 1:15 pm


Mumbai:

Reserve Bank of India,

Main Building, P.O.Box 901,

Shahid Bhagat Singh Road,

Mumbai-400 001.

Office Timings:

Monday to Friday : 10:15 am to 5:15 pm

Saturday : 10:15 am to 1:45 pm


Kolkata:

Reserve Bank of India,

15, Netaji Subhas Road,

P.B. No.552,

Kolkata-700 001

Office Timings:

Monday to Friday : 9:35 am to 5:05 pm

Saturday : 9:35 am to 1:20 pm

Ads by ZINC


Hyderabad:

Reserve Bank of India,

6-1-56 Secretariat Road,

Saifabad, P.B.No.1,

Hyderabad-500 004 (A.P)

Office Timings:

Monday to Friday : 10:15 am to 5:15 pm

Saturday : 10:15 am to 1:45 pm


Delhi:

Reserve Bank of India,

6, Sansad Marg,P.B.No.696,

New Delhi -110 001.

Office Timings:

Monday to Friday : 9:45 am to 4:45 pm

Saturday : 9:45 am to 1:15 pm

Even though, the India Public will have to wait and watch as what will be the actual outcome after 30th December.. They are reluctant to believe anything by the present situation.

 

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https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com

Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

 

Merry Christmas in India

PM Narendra Modi could well have played the role of the opposite of Santa Claus this Christmas. 

The impact of demonetisation decision was evident in November PMI data for services and manufacturing and more is in the offing, according to brokerage Nomura. Kerala seems to have suffered a double-whammy in the form of currency crunch, after the ban on liquor a few months earlier, hitting tourism.

indianchristmas2

Foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) to Kerala, which is famous for its Christmas traditions, Ayurvedic treatment and backwaters, have suffered a massive jolt and so has Goa. Agra is another victim of subdued activity this year.

In a globalised world, it’s not difficult to gauge the impact of optics in the form of long queues at ATMs, chaos and uncertainty, on tourists who would be in no mood to face hassles during vacation, especially in a foreign destination.

“News about long queues outside ATMs travelled fast and the next thing we received was cancellation orders from Saudi Arabia. 

Arrivals in November were OK since the bookings were done earlier. But cancellations started from December and the prospects for the remaining months look bleak,” the Economic Times quoted Abraham George, chairman of Intersight, the largest tour operator in Kerala, as saying.

The collateral damage could be on houseboats at places such as Alappuza and Kumarakom, though the quantum of hit can be assessed only after data is published.

Though foreign tourists would have paid for their hotel bookings in advance via online and other digital modes, they do need cash for shopping at various shops. The limits on currency exchange imposed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) impacted them.

Agra, famous for the world-famous Taj Mahal, is witnessing a drop in domestic tourist arrivals, a factor that is adding to its worries as FTAs are already on the decline. A report in the India Today, citing Vishal Sharma of Agra Tourist Welfare Chamber, said that the comfort provided by rise in domestic tourism that used to offset lesser foreign tourist arrivals has taken a hit due to demonetisation.

It is pertinent here that the period October to March is considered tourism season in India; the snowfall in places such as Shimla, Manali, Gulmarg and Srinagar in the months of December and January, apart from an overall cool weather attracts many foreign tourists in Holidays to India.


Despite of Celebrating Christmas Foreign Tourists have to resort to Street Performance to gather money

Foreign tourists in India have come up with the idea of street performances to fund their return tickets to New Delhi due to the cash crunch that the country has been facing following the demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes.


The demonetisation of the currency notes has left the tourists “virtually penniless” which is why two groups of foreigners, who had come to India in vacations resorted to performing on the streets to raise money. 


The two groups, which consist of 10-12 tourists from Germany, Australia and France, were seen performing near Pushkar’s famous Brahma Temple and also at a crossing at the Gau Ghat in Pushkar on Saturday with the hope that locals might help them with some money. They were also seen holding placards that read: “You can help us” and “Money problem.”

According to a Hindustan Times report, the male members of the two groups played musical instruments while the female members performed acrobatic stunts with big hoops to entertain the large crowd that had gathered on the streets to watch their performance.


The tourists told the daily that they had to resort to street performances because all “ATMs and banks ran out of cash” due to which they could not withdraw money from their bank accounts.


“Locals have been kind to us. So far we have collected around Rs 2,600,” Adlrik, a German tourist, said.


The foreigners desperately want to return to New Delhi and get in touch with the respective embassies to sail through the cash crunch.


“As a last resort, we took recourse to performing on the streets to get some help from locals so that we can at least reach Delhi to seek help from our embassies,” Jayden told HT.


They could not withdraw or exchange money from banks and ATMs despite repeated attempts. 


On Friday, my friend and I stood outside an SBI bank and another friend stood outside an ATM for three hours but as soon as our turn came, the cash was exhausted,” Adalene, a French tourist, said.


Christmas is also known as bada din in India meaning ‘the big day‘.


Customs for Christmas celebrations vary in the vast expanse of India. These variations are largely because of the local cultural influence.


A large number of domestic and international tourists flock to the beaches of Goa during Christmas festival to watch Goa at its best celebration. 

One can also regale in the best of festive music and dance during Christmas festivities. Catholics participate in the traditional midnight mass services locally called Missa de Galo or Cock Crow as they go on well into early hours of the morning. The Carnival, preceding Lent, is the most important event .

This year the Christmas celebrations are also mid-sized.

Merry Christmas to all .. !

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RBI Partially Rolls Back Rs 5,000 Order

RBI Partially Rolls Back Rs 5,000 Order

The Reserve Bank of India’s 60th Notification, on day number 43 of Demonetisation, since the date of announcement of Demonetization has partially rolled back an earlier notification that caused anger because it sought to restrict deposits of over 5000 rupees, in the process creating more confusion.

The earlier notification, issued on December 19, allowed the deposit of over 5000 rupees in bank accounts by citizens only once, that too after a “satisfactory explanation” could be provided to three bank officials.

 rbi-reu

Wednesday’s rollback makes an exception for fully KYC compliant customers. But it means that customers without fully compliant KYC norms will still have to give a “satisfactory explanation”.

KYC stands for ‘Know Your Customer’, a process through which banks obtain information about the identity of customers with accounts so that they cannot be misused. A proof of identity and a proof of address – Aadhar, license, Voters ID card, Passport or nrega card – have to be supplied for account verification.

Wednesday’s notification means that customers with fully compliant KYC accounts will be exempt from the order that states that deposits of over Rs 5000 could only be made once till December 30 and that people making such deposits will have to provide a “satisfactory explanation” to three bank officials as to why they didn’t deposit these amounts earlier.

This rule caused widespread anger and confusion all round, with people questioning why they had to provide an explanation for depositing their own money in excess of Rs. 5000. People cited legitimate reasons for waiting till the last week of December to deposit money. They also cited Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s promise in his November 8 address that people could deposit bank notes till December 30.

The decision follows widespread criticism of the guidelines, with people saying the Prime Minister as well as the finance minister have asked people not to throng the banks as they have time till December 30 to deposit invalid notes in their accounts.

Yogendra Yadav told CNN News18 that an “unfair and stupid” order had been rescinded. “It erodes the credibility of the RBI further,” he told the channel in a phone interview.

Another decision by the government taken on Wednesday has added to the all round confusion enveloping digital payments.

The Government passed The Payment of Wages (Amendment) Bill, 2016 to remove a provision that made employers seek written permission from employees before paying salaries by cheque or crediting them directly to bank accounts.

Demonetisation: Yogendra Yadav’s special explanation mocks RBI and Modi government

Several people including politicians and media had criticised RBI for the previous decision. Attacking the RBI decision, Swaraj Party leader had said, “It is not just about an unfair and stupid order. It is about compromising trust in Reserve Bank. Remember, currency a piece of paper that works on turst.”

It’s not just abt an unfair&stupid order
It’s abt compromising trust in Reserve Bank
Remember, currency a piece of paper that works on turst https://twitter.com/_YogendraYadav/status/811075208958226432 

Below is the explanation Yogendra Yadav had given while depositing cash in a bank:
c0geka2veaajnpr
 Then comes Arvind Kejriwal’s tweet
c0iykbnuaaqosys
We’ve told earlier People are loosing trust in Government, The RBI and the Banks in India.
sources:

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Demonetized Indian Banking| What is this 5000 Rupees Deposit Rule

Demonetisation:  The new Rs.5000 rupees deposit Rule

Daily Labourers in India were accepting the demonetised currency as they can deposit them in banks till December 31.

Else in this cash crunch no where to go. 

In between The RBI on Monday has issued fresh guidelines on depositing demonetised high value currency notes of Rs. 1000 and Rs. 500. Here is what you need to know:

What is the new rule from RBI?

The Reserve Bank of India on Monday announced that deposits of more than Rs. 5000 of demonetised currency note will be allowed only once, till December 30. So if you have Rs.10,000 with you in Rs.1000 or Rs.500 notes, you will have to take it to the bank in one go. After that, you will not be able to make any more deposits of demonetised notes till December 30.

Does this mean I cannot deposit more than once?

If you have less than Rs. 5,000 in demonetised notes in your hand, you can spread it over any number of deposits.

Are there any new procedures for depositing more than Rs.5,000 in demonetised notes?

You will have to present your case of why you didn’t deposit them earlier, in the presence of at least two bank officials. If the officials find your response satisfactory, it will be accepted. But your bank account may be scrutinisied later at the time of audit.

What if I deposited Rs.4000 and later found two more Rs.1000 notes?

If the combined values of your deposits exceeds Rs. 5000, you will be subjected to the same procedure as when depositing more than Rs.5,000 once. And you will not be able to make any more deposits of demonetised till Dec.30 after that.

But how will a bank know if I have deposited Rs.4,000 earlier elsewhere?

Every time you deposit demonetised money, the bank alerts the CBS (core banking solution). If you deposit Rs. 4,000 as old notes today , you can deposit only Rs.1,000 more in old notes without being asked to give an explanation.

What is this KYC compliance clause?

The one-time deposits of over Rs.5,000 can be made only to KYC-compliant accounts. KYC, or Know your customer, is a business process to verify the identity of bank customers. Banks collect a valid identification proof and address proof and PAN card details of its customers periodically. Those who haven’t submitted these documents are KYC-non compliant. Such customers can deposit only up to Rs. 50,000 in demonetised notes.

I don’t have time to visit a bank. Can I send someone on my behalf?

Yes, you can. You have to provide suitable authorisation to the bank and the person depositing the amount should show approved identification. You still have to send a written explanation as to why you didn’t make the deposit earlier.

I have more than Rs. 5000 in cash. But they are not demonetised currency notes…

There is no restriction on currency notes that are legal tender.

I have unaccounted money worth more than Rs.5000 and I am planning to disclose it under the new declaration scheme. What should I do now?

These restrictions do not apply to deposits made under the government’s new income declaration scheme, the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana 2016. You have to deposit 25 per cent of total declared unaccounted money to the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana, a scheme with a four-year lock in period with no interest.

I lost track of all rules related to demonetised money. A quick recap please.

Government has demonetised Rs. 1000 and Rs.500 currency notes with effect from November 8 midnight. Though the government had earlier made some exemptions, these notes have ceased to be legal tender and are not being accepted anywhere from December 15. If you still have them, they can be deposited in your accounts in nationalised and private-sector banks till December 30. 

After that, the Reserve Bank will continue to accept these notes directly till March end after getting a declaration.. 

But there is a question  “who’s going to believe this”.

People have lost their trust in the Government, RBI and the Banks ironically in the matter of finance.

Read further:
Indian Government has No Clues of Black Money in India
https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/12/16/indian-government-has-no-clues-of-black-money-in-india
Cashless Monetary System means Absolute Power over you
https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/12/17/cashless-monetary-system-means-absolute-power-over-you

arrested-ds-160x32

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com

Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015


Will ‘Cashless’ may be the new normal

Why ‘cashless’ may be the new normal in India

The demonetization drive is not so much about curbing black money. Consider the likely outcomes of a cashless society, and read back from them the intent behind such a move

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Perhaps the most significant development since the November 8 announcement of demonetisation is the shift in the legitimising narrative around the note ban. What was touted as a ‘surgical strike’ on black money, fake currency and terror funding has now become a radical ‘reform’ to transform India into a cashless economy. A series of measures, not least a high-decibel advertising campaign, are already in place to build national consensus in favour of this transformation.

Cashless Ki Baat

It was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Mann Ki Baat of November 27 that officially signalled this narrative switch. In a nuanced execution of a sophisticated communication strategy, Mr. Modi drew on the equivalence, in the Hindu imaginary, between ‘Swachh’ and ‘purity’, and ‘purity’ and ‘virtue’, to give a moral colouring to the binary of cash/cashless.

India is an economy where 90 per cent of all transactions are in cash. This is due to the large informal sector, which employs 90 per cent of the workforce. The overwhelming majority of them are not hoarders of black money. And yet, India cannot become a cashless society unless its mammoth informal sector transitions to digital payments.

Canny communicator that he is, Mr. Modi sought to pre-emptively quell the resistance such a forced transition would evoke by presenting the campaign for a cashless India as a campaign against black money and corruption. By dissolving the distinction between legal cash and black money, he cleared the ground for the treatment of all cash as potentially black unless proven white.

In other words, the informal sector is not an unintended casualty of demonetisation but the intended target. As the Reserve Bank of India Governor has clarified, the government was fully cognisant of the consequences of its move, and it was not at all an ill-planned operation, as some have suggested. As it happens, cash is the most powerful instrument of financial inclusion. Anyone can access it directly, without depending on rent-seeking technological or financial intermediaries. Once you have it, you could spend it whenever, wherever, and in whatever quantity you want to, without anyone being able to track you doing it. These are basic freedoms and rights that we take for granted. It is because these freedoms matter that there is resistance to their loss — a loss that is a given in a cashless society.

There was thus a logical need for a ‘phase one’ of demonetisation where the idea that it was about black money could be firmly planted in public memory. In phase two, which would kick in after ‘black money’ and national pride have been inserted into the demonetisation discourse, ‘cashless’ would be equated with ‘clean’, and cash with ‘dirt’ and the suspicion of dirty or black money.

In the cashless utopia that India is set to become, anyone who insists on using cash, a signifier of dirt, has a ‘dirty mind’, and is thus a suspect — a possible beneficiary of black money and the vices associated with it. Indeed, Mr. Modi concluded his Mann Ki Baat by explicitly equating ‘Swach Bharat’ with a cashless (or ‘less-cash’) Bharat, as he proclaimed, ‘Swachh Tan, Swachh Mann, Swachh Bharat, Mera Parichay’.

Why cashless?

But what explains this urgent drive towards a cashless society? One way to answer this is to consider the likely outcomes of a cashless society, and read back from it the intent behind such a move.

One immediate outcome of a cashless India would be a sharp rise in indirect taxes compliance. Traders, small businesses, shopkeepers, and consumers routinely use cash as a means to avoid paying service tax, sales tax, VAT, and any number of indirect taxes and fees. This mindset needs to change if the imminent Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime is to actually work. Brutally enforcing a cashless payments system — by sucking out 86 per cent of paper money and letting people flounder for a period in a condition of acute paper money scarcity — is perhaps the quickest means way to get there.

Apart from the state, another big beneficiary of a cashless India is finance capital. At present, India’s low-income households access credit through informal systems — be it a pawn broker or employer or a relative with cash savings.

This informality has been partially dented with the arrival of self-help groups that can access formal credit. But given India’s population, both the debt and the savings of the working classes constitute an enormous market that global finance has so far been unable to access.

Forcing them to shift to cashless payment platforms instantly formalises this world of informality. As the Prime Minister himself has reiterated many times, the mass opening of bank accounts under the Pradhan Mantri Jan-Dhan Yojana is a means towards financial inclusion, but in reverse: it channels personal income (wages/cash transfers) to financial markets via insurance and pension schemes such as the Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana and Atal Pension Yojana. Thanks to forced deposits, unlike cash in a piggy bank or a plastic pouch, money in Jan-Dhan accounts can serve as a fresh source of liquidity for financial institutions.

Go in for cashless transactions and get discounts, says govt.

The third beneficiary is the digital sector, which enjoys a complex but symbiotic relationship with finance capital. Digital payment apps and e-wallet companies have enjoyed record downloads and deposits post-November 8. Their massive ad spends were possible courtesy the financial institutions that have invested in these finance technology (fintech) businesses.

Finally, in a global scenario of debt-soaked slowdown, extreme income inequality, and stagnating real wages, capital accumulation is only possible through a mechanism that systematically administers an upward redistribution of income — from the 99 per cent to the 1 per cent. While an indirect tax regime like the GST would accomplish this objective for the state, the integration of personal savings into the global debt economy would manage the same for finance capital. The primary requirement in both cases is to capture the circuits of capital and commodity circulation that lie beyond their respective domains of taxation and credit — that is, the entire cash economy. The drive towards a cashless society is hence the lynchpin for securing the supremacy of the state-finance nexus.

The definition of ‘normal’

From businesses to analysts to ordinary citizens, everyone in India is waiting for life to return to normal. But what would constitute this ‘normal’? An easy definition for most people would be: no long queues at ATMs. But the queues are long not only because there are too many people and too little cash. They are long also because there is a limit on how much cash you can withdraw at a time, forcing people to queue up multiple times at different locations. A proper return to the pre-demonetisation ‘normal’ therefore entails something more: removal of any ceiling on cash withdrawals.

Indian Government to fund digital discounts

Such a definition of ‘normal’ would be valid if the reason for demonetisation was either destruction of black money or fake currency, or even a recapitalisation of banks — all of which has either already happened or no longer matter. Assuming you are an honest citizen who uses cash but not black money, you could legitimately expect to go back to the pre-currency ban status quo, with one difference: instead of old notes, you use new ones, which should soon be available in numbers proportionate to demand.

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But everything that the Prime Minister has said and done so far suggests that there may not be a return to this old ‘normal’. No matter how many currency notes are reportedly printed, how many ATMs are recalibrated, how many livelihoods affected in the informal sector, the ceiling on cash withdrawals may not be withdrawn any time soon — and no date has been indicated so far. The reason is simple: the demonetisation drive is not so much about curbing black money as it is about combating cash. The only way this could change is through extreme political pressure.

Not surprisingly, the banking sector is firmly behind the Prime Minister on demonetisation. So is the IT sector. Barring a few squeaks about the impact on growth, the corporate sector, too, is behind Mr. Modi. The only constituency that may not be, is the one targeted by demonetisation: the cash-dependent informal sector, which has taken a hit, and will continue to do so unless and until they switch en masse to digital payment platforms — which is what the government is expecting them to do.

While the political ramifications are a different story, one may view Mr. Modi’s push for a cashless India as the culmination of the economic logic of liberalisation unleashed by Manmohan Singh in 1991. From this ideological vantage point, a rapid transition to a cashless economy — even if it means not-so-subtle coercion — makes perfect sense.

Original Article published on The Hindu, an English Newspaper of India

sourced via sampath.g@thehindu.co.in

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/Why-%E2%80%98cashless%E2%80%99-may-be-the-new-normal/article16801344.ece

Read further:
Indian Government has No Clues of Black Money in India
https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/12/16/indian-government-has-no-clues-of-black-money-in-india
Cashless Monetary System means Absolute Power over you
https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/12/17/cashless-monetary-system-means-absolute-power-over-you

arrested-ds-160x32

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com

Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

Indian Government has No Clues of Black Money in India

Indian Government has No Estimation ever of Black Money in India

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There is no official estimation of black money either before or after November 8 — the day government announced scrapping of old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said in Parliament on Dec 16.

“There is no official estimation of the amount of black money either before or after the government’s decision of November 8, 2016 declaring that bank notes of denominations of the existing series of the value of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 shall cease to be legal tender with effect from November 9,” he said in a written reply in Lok Sabha.

And You are very much aware that the Indian Government is not even sure how much counterfeit currency was rolling in India before Demonetization and how much rolling now.. All they have stated that the govt had been informed of a mint in Peshawar where only fake Indian currency notes are printed every year by which Pak pushes Rs 70 crore worth of fake currency every year into the Indian economy.

And according to RBI, there is only Rs 400 crore worth of counterfeit currency in India.

Then Why Demonetization?

According to the Indian prime minister, there are two objectives. One is (curbing) terrorist financing and counterfeit currency—and the second is that the black economy has become very large and it is the source of poverty and all the problems in India so we need to get rid of the black economy.

The question isdoes demonetization overcome these two problems. As far as counterfeit notes are concerned, they are only 400 per million, which is very tiny. And according to RBI, there is only Rs 400 crore worth of counterfeit currency.

Total currency in circulation is Rs 17.5 lakh crore. Its not even oont ke muh me zeera, as they say in Hindi. Its negligible.

Terrorists need financing. So they print these fake notes and circulate it. But once they have given the money to another person, it’s circulating within the economy. So they have to print more and more money. That is what you have to stop.

And how do you stop that?

Not by demonetization, because there are state actors involved in counterfeiting. They can counterfeit the new currency notes also.

Then & Again Why all this Drama and Ho-Hoopla of Demonetization in India ?

The Answer has been already given by us in our post Indians towards Modern Slavery on 8th November, the day India announces Demonetization.

All this has been done for just one single objective “pave the path to Cashless Economy” just for the benefit of the Global Bankers who are now the Shadow Government in India along with some of the Super Rich and ultra powerful people.

The US has had acute trouble dealing with black money and dirty cash for over a hundred years now. Yet, not once has it declared its currency illegal since it began issuing notes in 1862. That is the strength of its financial system, on which the entire world relies.

But Indian Rulers have not only sold the Indians to the Global Bankers they also exposed the strength of its financial system as well the reliability of their own currency.

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A currency note is a promise that must be kept, whatever the circumstances.  This trust has also been broken in India.

Only to bring Cashless Economy in a Camouflaged way.

No Debates, No Discussions, No Public Opinion, No Bills…. Withot looking at the Drawbacks.

Mind you.. it’s not the Government but the Shadow Government going full throttle for Cashless Economy in India.

And Don’t be fooled.. You are always at risk in Cashless Economy and you will never be the absolute owner of your own wealth..There are a lot more things you need to know about Cashless System which will really make you cashless..

more to come…

Read further:
Indians towards Modern Slavery
https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/08/indians-towards-modern-slavery/
Demonetisation Loot And Plunder Says Manmohan Singh
https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/24/demonetisation-loot-and-plunder-says-manmohan-singh
The cash crunch may paralyse economic activities in India
https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/20/the-cash-crunch-may-paralyse-economic-activities-in-india

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https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com

Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

Currency Ban Is Tearing India’s Rural Banks Apart

Currency Ban Is Tearing Rural Banks Apart

Captureruralbank.JPG

On 8 November this year, the manager of a small semi-rural government bank branch in eastern Uttar Pradesh sat down for dinner in front of his television and found that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had destroyed his cash stock.

“I froze when I heard that Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes would be phased out in four hours,” he said, requesting anonymity to speak freely, “We had almost nothing in small notes.”

His branch had a little over Rs 6 lakh in Rs 100 notes, another Rs 5.5 lakh in 20s, and about Rs 90,000 in Rs 10 notes, out of a total chest of over Rs 60 lakh.

“We had no fifties,” he said ruefully, “and that was just the beginning.”

 (Photo: Rahul Gupta/The Quint)
(Photo: Rahul Gupta/The Quint)

In 3 Weeks Since Notes Ban, Bank In Rural UP Received Cash Only On 7 Days.

India’s banking system has seized up under the strain of Prime Minister Modi’s decision to phase out high denomination banknotes with immediate effect. Its effects are most visible in rural India. The eventual benefits of demonetisation, economists say, are uncertain; but the costs are clear and visible.

 

A startling 81 percent of Indians in the countryside live in settlements without a brick and mortar bank, according to figures put out by the Reserve Bank of India; the corresponding number for urban India is zero.

 

Unbanked areas, which account for 93 percent of rural India’s geographic expanse, are serviced by Rs 1.2 lakh “business correspondents”, young men like 30-year-old Dhruv Narayan Yadav who act as one-person bank counters in village markets and bazaars.

Since 8 November, villagers desperate to exchange their defunct notes for valid currency have swamped the few functional banks and correspondents like Yadav, stretching an already strained system to breaking point.
What follows is an account of two lives: one semi-rural bank branch manager, one young business correspondent, and their frantic efforts to stave off catastrophe even as the system intended to support them stuttered and failed.

 (Photo: Rahul Gupta/The Quint)
(Photo: Rahul Gupta/The Quint)

On 9 November, the day after PM Modi’s announcement, banks across the country were closed to the public. The bank manager spent the day on the phone with his circle office, pleading for cash.

 

We asked for about Rs 25 lakh to service our approximately 40,000 account holders. Usually, during festive season, we have an average payout of Rs 40 lakh a day.

 Unbanked areas in India are served by “business correspondents”, essentially “human ATMs” operating out of small kiosks. (Photo: Esha Paul/The Quint)
Unbanked areas in India are served by “business correspondents”, essentially “human ATMs” operating out of small kiosks. (Photo: Esha Paul/The Quint)

The next morning, as thousands queued up to exchange their money, the cash came in.

“Our circle office had sent us Rs 4 lakh.”

Staff were called back from leave, everyone including the bank manager manned the cash counters. Some customers got Rs 2,000, some got Rs 1,200, some got Rs 700. At 9 pm, when the branch finally closed, the cash counting machine packed up under the strain. “We stopped work and waited for a replacement.”

The banker went home at 3:00 am.

The next day, he asked for another Rs 25 lakh. “We got Rs 4 lakh.”

By now, people were desperate. The wedding season was beginning – everyone needed cash.

We informally told people, ‘come after banking hours with a copy of your marriage card as proof, we’ll try to give you Rs 5,000.’ What could we do?

Bank Manager

After a while, the banker felt bad asking his head office for more money, “Because we knew that every single rural bank was going through the same thing.”

 (Photo: Rahul Gupta/The Quint)
(Photo: Rahul Gupta/The Quint)

Dhruv Yadav, the SBI business correspondent (BC), was still in bed on 9 November when his bank manager called. As a correspondent in Badya Buzurg village, Yadav works like a human ATM machine: account holders can walk up to his small shop in the market and deposit up to Rs 20,000 a day with him or withdraw a similar amount.

Yadav records the transactions on his computer and in the passbooks of his customers.

“But now, we were told, you can take a deposit of only Rs 2,000 and you can give out only Rs 2,000. Also you can’t exchange any notes.” As he was leaving, the branch gave him some cash too, in case his customers in the village needed to withdraw money from their accounts.

“They gave me a total of Rs 12,000,” he said, “I distributed the money between 25 people.”

An SBI customer service centre in rural UP. (Photo: Esha Paul/The Quint)
An SBI customer service centre in rural UP. (Photo: Esha Paul/The Quint)

He asked people what they needed the money for. For instance, those buying vegetables got Rs 500, some got even less.

“A woman came up to me and said, ‘my child has pneumonia’,” Yadav recalled, “If you don’t give me money, he’ll die.”

The only person who got Rs 2,000, he said, was that mother. “I would have given her more, but I couldn’t break the rules.” Then he took her husband’s number and said he would call her when he got more money. A week passed; Yadav is still waiting for the money.

In the meantime, 30 people across India died waiting to get hold of their own money.

On 14 November, Finance Secretary Shaktikanta Das told the press, “there is absolutely no reason for the members of the public to feel any kind of panic” as there was enough cash in the banking system.

 

Yet in Uttar Pradesh, the bank manager was making hard decisions. On 16 November, a week after demonetisation began, his branch finally got Rs 20 lakh. So they decided to give cash to 1,000 account holders. “It’s a trade-off,” he said, “Give lots of people some money, or less people more money.”

The long working hours were putting a strain on his staff. The queue outside the bank would begin at 5 am, four hours before opening time. Customers were turning hostile, bank staff were so stressed they would occasionally erupt into shouting matches with each other. Some now had high blood pressure, others had low blood pressure.

“Modi says the drive is also to reduce counterfeit currency,” he said, “but we are so short-staffed, we have no time to check each note. Cash is stacked into bundles, shoved into sacks and sealed.”

 (Photo: Rahul Gupta/The Quint)
(Photo: Rahul Gupta/The Quint)

What if a bundle of 1,000s turned out to be fake, the banker worried, would they force him to pay out of his savings?

As the date of his retirement draws closer, the banker said he is increasingly reminded of a joke from the time Indira Gandhi nationalised the banks in 1969.

“When the dogs would bark in the dead of night, people would say – go to sleep; it’s probably just a banker going home.”

“It feels like we are back in those days again.”

With the government pushing farmers and the rural population to open bank accounts in the wake of the currency ban, the situation at this bank in rural Uttar Pradesh, however, has not improved even after 35 days since the cash ban was announced.

sources:

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https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com

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Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015