Category Archives: Election

Donald Trump’s Inaugural address

Donald Trump’s Inaugural address

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Donald Trump has been sworn in as the 45th president of the United States.

To a crowd of hundreds of thousands Trump gave his first inaugural address to the American people after taking the oath of office.

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Presidents have been inaugurated on January 20, since Franklin D. Roosevelt took the oath of office in 1937, moving up from the previous day of March 4.

The swearing-in is just one of the day’s activities.

Traditionally, presidents have started the day with a morning worship service and Trump was handed the nuclear codes and briefed on firing missiles ahead of the ceremony.

The security convoy escorting the Trumps to church was enormous.

Trump was sworn in using two Bibles – his own, and the one used by Abraham Lincoln at his first inauguration in 1861, and the oath will be administered by Chief Justice John Roberts.

The Lincoln Bible is bound in burgundy velvet, and was also used for Barack Obama’s inaugurations in 2009 and 2013.

In front of a crowd of around 900,000 Americans, Trump took to the stage and vowed to unite a divided country in his inaugural address.

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Below is a rush transcript of Trump’s speech in full:

Chief Justice Roberts, President Carter, President Clinton, President Bush, President Obama, fellow Americans, and people of the world, thank you”.

 

We, the citizens of America, are now joined in a great national effort to rebuild our country and restore its promise for all of our people. Together, we will determine the course of America and the world for many, many years to come.

We will face challenges. We will confront hardships, but we will get the job done. Every four years, we gather on these steps to carry out the orderly and peaceful transfer of power. And we are grateful to President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama for their gracious aid throughout this transition. They have been magnificent. Thank you.

Today’s ceremony however, has very special meaning, because today we are not merely transferring power from one administration to another or from one party to another, but we are transferring power from Washington, DC, and giving it back to you, the people.

 

For too long, a small group in our nation’s Capital have reaped the rewards of government while people have borne the cost. Washington flourished, but the people did not share in its wealth.

Politicians prospered, but the jobs left and the factories closed. The establishment protected itself, but not the citizens of our country. Their victories have not been your victories. Their triumphs have not been your triumphs, and while they celebrated in our nation’s capital, there was little to celebrate for struggling families all across our land.

That all changes starting right here and right now, because this moment is your moment. It belongs to you. It belongs to everyone gathered here today and everyone watching all across America. This is your day. This is your celebration. And this, the United States of America, is your country.

Because what truly matters is not what truly controls our government but whether our government is controlled by the people. January 20, 2017, will be remembered as the day the people became the rulers of this nation again.

The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer. Everyone is listening to you now. You came by the tens of millions to become part of a historic movement, the likes of which the world has never seen before.

At the center of this movement is a crucial conviction, that a nation exists to serve its citizens. Americans want great schools for their children, safe neighborhoods for their families, and good jobs for themselves. These are just and reasonable demands of righteous people and a righteous public. But for too many of our citizens, a different reality exists.

Mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities, rusted-out factories, scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation, an education system flush with cash but which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of all knowledge.

And the crime and the gangs and the drugs that have stolen too many lives and robbed our country of so much unrealized potential. This American carnage stops right here and stops right now.

We are one nation, and their pain is our pain. Their dreams are our dreams, and their success will be our success. We share one heart, one home, and one glorious destiny.

The oath of office I take today is an oath of allegiance to all Americans.

For many decades, we have enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry, subsidized the armies of other countries while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military.

We have defended other nations’ borders while refusing to defend our own, and spent trillions and trillions of dollars overseas while America’s infrastructure has fallen into disrepair and decay.

We’ve made other countries rich while the wealth, strength, and confidence of our country has dissipated over the horizon. One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores with not even a thought about the millions and millions of American workers that were left behind. The wealth of our middle class has been ripped from their homes and then redistributed all across the world.

But that is the past, and now we are looking only to the future. We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power. From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land. From this day forward, it’s going to be only America first, America first.

Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies, and destroying our jobs.

Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength. I will fight for you with every breath in my body. And I will never, ever let you down.

America will start winning again, winning like never before. We will bring back our jobs. We will bring back our borders. We will bring back our wealth. And we will bring back our dreams. We will build new roads and highways and bridges and airports and tunnels and railways all across our wonderful nation. We will get our people off of welfare and back to work,rebuilding our country with American hands and American labor.

We will follow two simple rules: Buy American and hire American.

We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world, but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first. We do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone, but rather to let it shine as an example. We will shine for everyone to follow. We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones and reform the world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate from the face of the Earth.

At the bedrock of our politics will be a total allegiance to the United States of America and through our loyalty to our country, we will rediscover our loyalty to each other. When you open your heart to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice. The Bible tells us how good and pleasant it is when God’s people live together in unity. We must speak our minds openly, debate our disagreements honestly, but always pursue solidarity.

When America is united, America is totally unstoppable.

There should be no fear. We are protected, and we will always be protected. We will be protected by the great men and women of our military and law enforcement. And most importantly, we will be protected by God.

Finally, we must think big and dream even bigger. In America, we understand that a nation is only living as long it is striving. We will no longer accept politicians who are all talk and no action, constantly complaining but never doing anything about it. The time for empty talk is over.

Now arrives the hour of action. Do not allow anyone to tell you that it cannot be done. No challenge can match the heart and fight and spirit of America. We will not fail. Our country will thrive and prosper again. We stand at the birth of a new millennium, ready to unlock the mysteries of space, to free the Earth from the miseries of disease and harness the energies, industries, and technologies of tomorrow.

A new national pride will stir ourselves, lift our sights, and heal our divisions. It’s time to remember that old wisdom our soldiers will never forget, that whether we are black or brown or white, we all bleed the same red blood of patriots. We all enjoy the same glorious freedoms. And we all salute the same great American flag.

And whether a child is born in the urban sprawl of Detroit or the windswept plains of Nebraska, they look at the same night sky. They fill their heart with the same dreams, and they are infused with the breath of life by the same almighty creator.

So to all Americans, in every city near and far, small and large, from mountain to mountain, from ocean to ocean, hear these words: You will never be ignored again.

Your voice, your hopes, and your dreams will define our American destiny. And your courage, goodness, and love will forever guide us along the way.

Together, we will make America strong again. We will make America wealthy again. We will make America proud again. We will make America safe again.

And yes, together, we will make America great again.

Thank you. God bless you. And God bless America”.

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Melania and Donald Trump on the way to church on inauguration day

Trump’s election was greeted with concern by many countries around the world, in part because of the potential for an isolationist foreign policy. Now he has been sworn in, when does Trump get the chance to start work on the controversial policies which have divided a nation?

sources:
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/1/20/14337788/transcript-donald-trump-inaugural-address
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2147756/donald-trump-inauguration-what-happened/

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CIA Has Interfered With Over 81 Foreign Elections in the Past Century

 

The U.S. is no stranger to interfering in the elections of other countries

This number doesn’t include military coups and regime change efforts following the election of candidates the U.S. didn’t like, notably those in Iran, Guatemala and Chile.

The CIA has accused Russia of interfering in the 2016 presidential election (with absolutely zero evidence) by hacking into Democratic and Republican computer networks and selectively releasing emails.

But critics might point out the U.S. has done similar things.

The U.S. has a long history of attempting to influence presidential elections in other countries – it’s done so as many as 81 times between 1946 and 2000, according to a database amassed by political scientist Dov Levin of Carnegie Mellon University.

That number doesn’t include military coups and regime change efforts following the election of candidates the U.S. didn’t like…

like, notably those in Iran, Guatemala and Chile. Nor does it include general assistance with the electoral process, such as election monitoring.

Levin defines intervention as “a costly act which is designed to determine the election results [in favor of] one of the two sides.”

These acts, carried out in secret two-thirds of the time, include funding the election campaigns of specific parties, disseminating misinformation or propaganda, training locals of only one side in various campaigning or get-out-the-vote techniques, helping one side design their campaign materials, making public pronouncements or threats in favor of or against a candidate, and providing or withdrawing foreign aid.

In 59% of these cases, the side that received assistance came to power, although Levin estimates the average effect of “partisan electoral interventions” to be only about a 3% increase in vote share.

The U.S. hasn’t been the only one trying to interfere in other countries’ elections, according to Levin’s data.

Russia attempted to sway 36 foreign elections from the end of World War II to the turn of the century – meaning that, in total, at least one of the two great powers of the 20th century intervened in about 1 of every 9 competitive, national-level executive elections in that time period.

Italy’s 1948 general election is an early example of a race where U.S. actions probably influenced the outcome.

“We threw everything, including the kitchen sink” at helping the Christian Democrats beat the Communists in Italy, said Levin, including covertly delivering “bags of money” to cover campaign expenses, sending experts to help run the campaign, subsidizing “pork” projects like land reclamation, and threatening publicly to end U.S. aid to Italy if the Communists were elected.

Levin said that U.S. intervention probably played an important role in preventing a Communist Party victory, not just in 1948, but in seven subsequent Italian elections.

Throughout the Cold War, U.S. involvement in foreign elections was mainly motivated by the goal of containing communism, said Thomas Carothers, a foreign policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“The U.S. didn’t want to see left-wing governments elected, and so it did engage fairly often in trying to influence elections in other countries,” Carothers said.

This approach carried over into the immediate post-Soviet period.

In the 1990 Nicaragua elections, the CIA leaked damaging information on alleged corruption by the Marxist Sandinistas to German newspapers, according to Levin.

The opposition used those reports against the Sandinista candidate, Daniel Ortega. He lost to opposition candidate Violeta Chamorro.

In Czechoslovakia that same year, the U.S. provided training and campaign funding to Vaclav Havel’s party and its Slovak affiliate as they planned for the country’s first democratic election after its transition away from communism.

“The thinking was that we wanted to make sure communism was dead and buried,” said Levin.

Even after that, the U.S. continued trying to influence elections in its favor.

In Haiti after the 1986 overthrow of dictator and U.S. ally Jean-Claude “Baby Doc” Duvalier, the CIA sought to support particular candidates and undermine Jean-Bertrande Aristide, a Roman Catholic priest and proponent of liberation theology.

The New York Times reported in the 1990s that the CIA had on its payroll members of the military junta that would ultimately unseat Aristide after he was democratically elected in a landslide over Marc Bazin, a former World Bank official and finance minister favored by the U.S.

The U.S. also attempted to sway Russian elections. In 1996, with the presidency of Boris Yeltsin and the Russian economy flailing, President Clinton endorsed a $10.2-billion loan from the International Monetary Fund linked to privatization, trade liberalization and other measures that would move Russia toward a capitalist economy.

Yeltsin used the loan to bolster his popular support, telling voters that only he had the reformist credentials to secure such loans, according to media reports at the time.

He used the money, in part, for social spending before the election, including payment of back wages and pensions.

In the Middle East, the U.S. has aimed to bolster candidates who could further the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

In 1996, seeking to fulfill the legacy of assassinated Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and the peace accords the U.S. brokered, Clinton openly supported Shimon Peres, convening a peace summit in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el Sheik to boost his popular support and inviting him to a meeting at the White House a month before the election.

“We were persuaded that if [Likud candidate Benjamin] Netanyahu were elected, the peace process would be closed for the season,” said Aaron David Miller, who worked at the State Department at the time.

In 1999, in a more subtle effort to sway the election, top Clinton strategists, including James Carville, were sent to advise Labor candidate Ehud Barak in the election against Netanyahu.

In Yugoslavia, the U.S. and NATO had long sought to cut off Serbian nationalist and Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic from the international system through economic sanctions and military action.

In 2000, the U.S. spent millions of dollars in aid for political parties, campaign costs and independent media. Funding and broadcast equipment provided to the media arms of the opposition were a decisive factor in electing opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica as Yugoslav president, according to Levin.

“If it wouldn’t have been for overt intervention… Milosevic would have been very likely to have won another term,” he said.

Reblogged on WordPress.com

Source: CIA Has Interfered With Over 81 Foreign Elections in the Past Century

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It’s Official: Trump Wins Electoral College Vote — 1EarthUnited

Donald Trump: 45th President of the United States. It’s Official At 7:49 PM EST the final count was confirmed: Donald Trump has 304 votes; Hillary Clinton has 227 votes; 7 votes went to others. Donald’s Trump victory was confirmed at 5.30pm EST

UPDATE: 5.30pm EST Its official, Donald Trump has surpassed the required 270 votes. 36 of 38 Texas electors voted for Trump. 

One voted for Ron Paul and another for John Kasich.

Latest news confirm that Donald Trump has surpassed the 270 electors vote required to become the 45th president of the United States.

UPDATE: 4.44pm EST: Trump is two votes away from away from being elected president of the United States. Sofar Trump has not lost a single Elector’s vote. Hillary Clinton has lost 4 Electoral votes. 

As of 4.20pm ET,  electoral college voting has been finalized in “at least 43 states, with 259 votes for Donald J. Trump and 115 for Hillary Clinton.” (NYT, December 19, 2016). 

UPDATE: 5.26PM EST. Texas will be reporting votes within the next few minutes, which will confirm Trump’s 270 required votes. At the moment, prior to the Texas results, Trump has 268 votes.

UPDATE: The latest figures at 4.30pm EST:  Donald Trump has 265 votes; Hillary Clinton has 160 votes. There are 109 votes pending. It’s not yet official but these results suggest a Trump win of the College Vote.

UPDATE: Dec 19, 2016 4:44 PM EST  Montana has cast 3 votes for Donald Trump.

Soft Protests

US news media report protest movements of several hundred in several state capitals urging College Electors not to vote for Trump. No significant mass movements took place. No shift in votes has occurred in relation to Trump.

The propaganda “fake news” campaign led by the mainstream media (with the support of Obama and CIA Director John Brennan) portraying Trump as a Russian agent has failed dismally.

The NYT acknowledges that:

 Despite calls for electors to defy the voters in states carried by Mr. Trump, the only signs of “faithless” electors have been in states that Mrs. Clinton won. (NYT, December 19, 2016)

The most pernicious “hate news” attack on Trump was on NBC’s Saturday Night Live which intimated that if Donald Trump becomes president, “he will  kill us all”. 

According to the reports:

There were many protesters but few faithless electors as Donald Trump appeared to cruise toward 270 votes in the Electoral College on Monday — ensuring he will become America’s 45th president.

Even one of Trump’s fiercest Republican rivals, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, said it was time to get behind the president-elect.

In Madison, Wisconsin, protesters shouted, cried and sang “Silent Night.” In Augusta, Maine, they banged on drums and held signs that said, “Don’t let Putin Pick Our President,” referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But despite the noise outside state Capitols, inside, the voting went pretty much as planned.

With more than 30 states reporting, neither Trump nor Hillary Clinton had lost a single elector.

….

Republican electors have been deluged with emails, phone calls and letters urging them not to support Trump. Many of the emails are part of coordinated campaigns.

Some [democrats] have also tried to dissuade Trump voters by arguing that he is unsuited to the job. Others cite the CIA’s assessment that Russia engaged in computer hacking to sway the election in favor of the Republican. (ABC news)

Follow Global Research for updates.

UPDATES (Courtesy kiro7.com)

  1. Dec 19, 2016 4:44 PM EST  Montana has cast 3 votes for Donald Trump. He is two Electoral votes away from being elected president of the United States.
  2.  Dec 19, 2016 4:36 PM EST  From the Associated Press: “A couple of hundred protesters are gathering outside the California state Capitol ahead of Monday’s Electoral College meeting.”
  3.  Dec 19, 2016 4:30 PM EST  The count: Donald Trump has 265 votes; Hillary Clinton has 160 votes. There are 109 votes pending.
  4.  Dec 19, 2016 4:25 PM EST  Iowa cast 6 votes for Donald Trump.
  5.  Dec 19, 2016 4:12 PM EST  From The Associated Press: “Democrat Hillary Clinton received eight votes, former Secretary of State Colin Powell got three, and Faith Spotted Eagle, an elder in the Yankton Dakota tribe, got one. Clinton won the state’s popular vote.”
  6.  Dec 19, 2016 4:10 PM EST  Prior to the vote of the last handful of states — Texas included — the only faithless electors have been Democrats.
  7.  Dec 19, 2016 4:08 PM EST  Massachusetts cast 11 votes for Hillary Clinton.
  8.  Dec. 19, 2016 4:05 PM EST  Iowa, Montana and Nevada began voting at 4 p.m. ET.
  9.  Dec 19, 2016 3:59 PM EST  Alaska has cast 3 votes for Donald Trump.
  10.  Dec 19, 2016 3:49 PM EST The count: Donald Trump has 256 Electoral votes; Hillary Clinton has 135 votes. There are 143 votes pending.
  11.  Dec 19, 2016 3:46 PM EST New Jersey cast 14 votes for Hillary Clinton.
  12.  Dec 19, 2016 3:47 PM EST Four Democratic voters in Washington chose not to vote for Hillary Clinton, becoming “faithless” voters. Clinton took the other 8 votes in the state. Three Democratic electors have tried to be “faithless” by not voting for Clinton. One in Maine, one in Minnesota and one in Colorado. Those votes were changed and registered for Clinton.
  13.  Dec 19, 2016 3:42 PM EST  Colorado has cast 9 votes for Hillary Clinton.
  14.  Dec 19, 2016 3:29 PM EST  Nebraska electors cast 5 votes for Donald Trump.
  15.  Dec 19, 2016 3:22 PM EST  Missouri has cast 10 votes for Donald Trump.
  16.  Dec 19, 2016 3:10 PM EST  The Maine elector who voted for Bernie Sanders has his vote ruled “improper.” He has switched the vote to Clinton.
  17.  Dec 19, 2016 3:03 PM EST  Voting began at 3 p.m. in Alaska, Massachusetts, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, Texas and Washington.
  18.  Dec 19, 2016 2:50 PM EST  The Second District of Maine cast 3 votes for Hillary Clinton. The First District of Maine cast 1 vote for Donald Trump.
  19.  Dec 19, 2016 2:48 PM EST  The count: Donald Trump has 240 Electoral votes; Hillary Clinton has 115. There are 183 pending.

 

via It’s Official: Trump Wins Electoral College Vote, Propaganda Campaign Portraying Him as an Instrument of Moscow has Failed — 1EarthUnited

 

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HOLD ON FOLKS- THE MEDIA IS LYING ABOUT WHAT TRUMP SAID LIKE THEY ALWAYS DO! — THE MARSHALL REPORT

So many people are continuing to get sucker punched by angry liberal media who say what the globalists tell them to say! Does anyone actually believe that now that Trump won the election the globalists who own the media and hate him are going to smile and say Trump’s a great guy? No.

What they are doing is cherry picking sound bytes to resemble something Trump said and skewing it to mean something entirely different than what is actually taking place.

Recently the jabber is about Romney the awful “never Trump” town crier to have been appointed secretary of state.  This is another bunch of bull to stir up Trump supporters. It will most likely be Ruddy who is appointed to that position.  Not a turncoat globalist lap dog like Mitt.

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Another media spin is that Trump is not seeking charges against Hillary Clinton.  The truth is Trump did not say this. What he said was – it wasn’t his job to seek charges against Hillary Clinton but it was his job to appoint a capable attorney general and FBI director to pursue any charges by any and all means necessary.

Trump’s advisor, Conway,  said, “President Trump has better things to do.  He’s got plenty of capable people who will handle law enforcement properly, unlike the current administration.

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What this shows is Trump is capable of operating a chain of command and Clinton will be dealt with by the proper authorities.  There will be no dog and pony power struggle show only law and order the way it is supposed to operate.

The truth is this nation has been operating under such lawlessness there has been no chain of command….only mandated dictates from the oval office.  Those days are over!

What you are watching is a ruthless media putting out more lies in an effort to disillusion Trump supporters.  Don’t fall for the toxic Kool Aid!

Dianne for The Marshall Report

 

via HOLD ON FOLKS- THE MEDIA IS LYING ABOUT WHAT TRUMP SAID LIKE THEY ALWAYS DO! — THE MARSHALL REPORT

 

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Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

 

“Anti-Establishment” Trump must Pardon Edward Snowden

An “Anti-Establishment” Trump Should Pardon Edward Snowden

During his first days as president, Barack Obama pledged to protect government whistleblowers. In fact, Change.org even highlighted this stance saying, “Often the best source of information about waste, fraud, and abuse in government is an existing government employee committed to public integrity and willing to speak out. Such acts of courage and patriotism, which can sometimes save lives and often save taxpayer dollars, should be encouraged rather than stifled.”

Oddly, or rather conveniently enough, this section of the webpage disappeared just days after the first round of Edward Snowden leaks.

In September Edward Snowden has set out the case for Barack Obama granting him a pardon before the US president leaves office in January, arguing that the disclosure of the scale of surveillance by US and British intelligence agencies was not only morally right but had left citizens better off.

Which Obama had denied straight forward at the time.

Today He’s been asked again;

PRESIDENT OBAMA INDICATED on Friday that he won’t pardon NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden

In an interview with Obama published on Friday, German newspaper Der Spiegel asked: “Are you going to pardon Edward Snowden?” Obama replied: “I can’t pardon somebody who hasn’t gone before a court and presented themselves, so that’s not something that I would comment on at this point.”

But P.S. Ruckman, editor of the Pardon Power blog said Obama is wrong to suggest he couldn’t pardon Snowden if he wanted to. Ruckman noted that Obama has previously only granted pardons and commutations to people who have already been convicted. “I just think what he may have better said is: ‘I prefer that he present himself to a court and then we’ll talk turkey.’ But technically in terms of the Constitution, there are no restrictions at all.”

The operative Supreme Court ruling, from 1886, states that “The power of pardon conferred by the Constitution upon the President is unlimited except in cases of impeachment. It extends to every offence known to the law, and may be exercised at any time after its commission, either before legal proceedings are taken or during their pendency, or after conviction and judgment. The power is not subject to legislative control.”

Obama said that although Snowden “raised some legitimate concerns,” he “did not follow the procedures and practices of our intelligence community.

Now the table is turning towards Donald Trump

For many Trump supporters — as well as the rest of the country — the surveillance state is one of the largest abominations to individual liberty seen in our lifetime, and that includes the passage of the Patriot Act and all the regulatory agencies that were conceived in the wake of 9/11. Without a firm anti-establishment stance against “big brother.,” draining the swamp is not only unlikely, it is simply impossible.

There is, of course, also the issue of Julian Assange. since Wikileaks committed itself to a campaign exposing Hillary Clinton in the final weeks of the election, the Republicans now view Assange as a hero.

Trump has also praised Assange, which seems appropriate since it is clear he has got an edge in demoralizing Hillary Camp. But truly speaking it is entirely unreasonable to attribute Trump’s election night victory to the dozens of “Podesta Email” leaks that were released over the last several weeks.

Now that Trump has publicly called Assange a hero for essentially doing the same thing Snowden did — it is possible that President Trump would consider pardoning Edward Snowden.

Again, at this point no one knows how this next administration will function. . pardoning Edward Snowden would be the ultimate stand against the establishment.

If President Trump holds true to his promise of restoring peaceful relations with Russia, where Edward Snowden has taken asylum for the past three and a half years, Snowden could very well become a bargaining chip. Of course, this is all speculation at the moment, but as non-interventionists seeking peace, we can only hope that improved relations with Russia do not come at the cost of the most heroic whistleblower of our time.

Trump’s legacy as president is a blank slate, it could go either way. If he wants to keep his current base of support and prove his skeptics wrong, he would be wise to pardon Edward Snowden, and dish out the first real blow to the establishment during his first days in office.

People are optimistic in this regard and expecting a positive step from Trump.

One Person commented “I would state that the best reason to pardon Edward Snowden is that he revealed secrets during a secretive United States power regime.

So far, what I have seen is that the revelations he has brought out are mostly about ways the government security apparatus has been doing to monitor and control Americans. This is exactly the opposite of the idea of the founding of this great nation. Our government has gotten off its principles, and needs to find its way back.

The pardoning of Edward Snowden, followed by the (hopeful) repeal of the (un-)Patriot Act would go a long way in that direction.

Snowden said any evaluation of the consequences of his leak of tens of thousands of National Security Agency and GCHQ documents in 2013 would show clearly that people had benefited.

“Yes, there are laws on the books that say one thing, but that is perhaps why the pardon power exists – for the exceptions, for the things that may seem unlawful in letters on a page but when we look at them morally, when we look at them ethically, when we look at the results, it seems these were necessary things, these were vital things,” he said.

“I think when people look at the calculations of benefit, it is clear that in the wake of 2013 the laws of our nation changed. The [US] Congress, the courts and the president all changed their policies as a result of these disclosures. At the same time there has never been any public evidence that any individual came to harm as a result.”

The campaign has received a further lift from Oliver Stone’s film, Snowden,  released in the US.  Over the weekend the director said he hoped the film would help shift opinion behind the whistleblower, and added his voice to the plea for a pardon.

Snowden has 2.3 million followers on Twitter giving him a huge platform to express his views

As far Snowden as a person is concerned, In Hong Kong in June 2013, when he had passed his documents to journalists, Snowden displayed an almost unnatural calm, as if resigned to his fate. On Monday he said that at that time he expected a “dark end” in which he was either killed or jailed in the US.

More than three years on, he appears cheerful and relaxed. He has avoided the fate of fellow whistleblower Chelsea Manning, who is in solitary confinement in the US. Snowden is free to communicate with supporters and chats online late into the night.

His 2.3 million followers on Twitter give him a huge platform to express his views. He works on tools to try to help journalists. He is not restricted to Moscow and has travelled around Russia, and his family in the US have been to visit him.

 Donald Trump must hear the pleas and grant him pardon and justice.

sources:

Source: An “Anti-Establishment” Trump Would Pardon Edward Snowden

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/13/edward-snowden-why-barack-obama-should-grant-me-a-pardon

https://theintercept.com/2016/11/18/obama-refuses-to-pardon-edward-snowden-trumps-new-cia-pick-wants-him-dead/

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Americans Voted for Dead Gorilla

Did thousands of Americans vote for a dead gorilla?

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As the dust settles on the news that Donald Trump has beaten Hillary Clinton to win the US presidency, We take a look at some of the more quirky social media trends that emerged with the election results.


The Harambe mandate


Many social media users reacted with disbelief to tweets that were flying around suggesting that more than 10,000 people had voted – not for Trump or Clinton – but for a dead gorilla. What?


Yes, Harambe the 17-year-old Western lowland silverback gorilla who was shot and killed earlier this year after a child fell into his enclosure at Cincinnati Zoo, is said to have received thousands of ‘Write-in- Votes’, an American electoral anomaly whereby you can actually vote for someone not on the ballot paper.

What is Write-in-Vote ?

A Write-in-Vote is Voting a candidate in an election whose name does not appear on the ballot, but for whom voters may vote nonetheless by writing in the person’s name. The system is almost totally confined to elections in the United States. 

Generally, write-in candidates can compete in any election within the United States. Typically, write-in candidates have a very small chance of winning, but there have been some strong showings by write-in candidates over the years.

Write-in candidacies may also be permitted where term limits bar an incumbent candidate from being officially nominated for, or being listed on the ballot for, Re-election

A write-in candidate can file paperwork days, weeks, or even months ahead of the election in order to have their votes tallied. If the candidates dont file, their votes will be dumped into the other category, alongside votes for Santa Claus and me. (Apparently, people like to vote for themselves.)

In terms of Write-in’s the 2016 presidential election could go down as “the year of the write-in vote”.  The names submitted include the serious, bizarre, and silly.

This time in Knox County a total of 3,837 voters wrote in a name for president, more than seven times the amount submitted in the 2012 presidential election when 528 voters wrote-in a candidate.

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Alice Cooper, Evan McMullin, burnt toast and Pope Francis also received write-in votes for president from Knox County voters.

Popular American Footballer Aaron Rodgers also received some write-in votes, at least according to his Twitter feed. Like most things, he took it all in stride, and even offered up a heartfelt concession speech of sorts.

I just want to thank all the voters out there who did vote for me,” Rodgers said, via JSOline.com. “I know for some people it was between me and Harambe. I think I finished second in that vote.”

But depending on location, those so-called “protest votes” might not even register.

According to the National Association of Secretaries of State, write-ins are actually prohibited in nine states: Arkansas, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and South Dakota. (Mississippi makes an exception if a candidate on the ballot dies or withdraws. And though the Nevada ballot doesn’t include a fill-in-the-blank option, it does allow citizens to vote for “none of these candidates” – an option nearly 6,000 voters exercised during the Obama-Romney matchup in 2012, according to FEC data.)

Whether or not the votes could really have impacted on the results of the election, plenty of people are confused till the end, by the high drama effects created in this election by American media.

sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Write-in_candidate

http://www.wbir.com/news/local/serious-bizarre-funny-looking-at-write-in-votes/350803984

arrested-ds-160x32

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com

Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

The TRUMPET of VICTORY

The TRUMPET of VICTORY

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Against all odds, polls, and projections, Donald Trump claimed victory in the presidential election Tuesday, delivering a speech at the Hilton Hotel in New York City on Tuesday to a cheering crowd of supporters.

For 18 months, pundits have pontificated about whether Trump would ever be able to be “presidential”, whether he would behave himself long enough to have a stab at winning the world’s most powerful job. And when the moment came, and he presented himself as US president-elect, he did it in classic style: he didn’t appear presidential. Rather, he rewrote the rule book on what it is to be so.

Not many historic victory speeches made over the ages have begun with: Sorry to keep you waiting. Complicated business …”

Not many presidents-elect have gone on to say of their vanquished rival that we owe major debt of gratitude for her service to our country

Not many soon-to-be-occupants of the Oval Office have promised to double our growth and have the strongest economy anywhere in the world”.

We have published here a ‘as it is’ transcript of his speech in full:

Thank you. Thank you very much, everyone. Sorry to keep you waiting. Complicated business, complicated.. Thank you very much.

I’ve just received a call from Secretary Clinton. She congratulated us. It’s about us. On our victory, and I congratulated her and her family on a very, very hard-fought campaign.

I mean, she fought very hard. Hillary has worked very long and very hard over a long period of time, and we owe her a major debt of gratitude for her service to our country.

I mean that very sincerely. Now it is time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people.

It is time. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all of Americans, and this is so important to me. For those who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people, I’m reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so that we can work together and unify our great country. As I’ve said from the beginning, ours was not a campaign but rather an incredible and great movement, made up of millions of hard-working men and women who love their country and want a better, brighter future for themselves and for their family.

It is a movement comprised of Americans from all races, religions, backgrounds, and beliefs, who want and expect our government to serve the people, and serve the people it will.

Working together, we will begin the urgent task of rebuilding our nation and renewing the American dream. I’ve spent my entire life in business, looking at the untapped potential in projects and in people all over the world.

That is now what I want to do for our country. Tremendous potential. I’ve gotten to know our country so well. Tremendous potential. It is going to be a beautiful thing. Every single American will have the opportunity to realize his or her fullest potential. The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer.

We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none, and we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it. We will also finally take care of our great veterans who have been so loyal, and I’ve gotten to know so many over this 18-month journey.

The time I’ve spent with them during this campaign has been among my greatest honors.

Our veterans are incredible people. We will embark upon a project of national growth and renewal. I will harness the creative talents of our people, and we will call upon the best and brightest to leverage their tremendous talent for the benefit of all. It is going to happen.

We have a great economic plan. We will double our growth and have the strongest economy anywhere in the world. At the same time, we will get along with all other nations willing to get along with us. We will be.

We will have great relationships. We expect to have great, great relationships. No dream is too big, no challenge is too great. Nothing we want for our future is beyond our reach.

America will no longer settle for anything less than the best. We must reclaim our country’s destiny and dream big and bold and daring. We have to do that. We’re going to dream of things for our country, and beautiful things and successful things once again.

I want to tell the world community that while we will always put America’s interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone, with everyone.

All people and all other nations. We will seek common ground, not hostility; partnership, not conflict. And now I would like to take this moment to thank some of the people who really helped me with this, what they are calling tonight a very, very historic victory.

First, I want to thank my parents, who I know are looking down on me right now. Great people. I’ve learned so much from them. They were wonderful in every regard. Truly great parents. I also want to thank my sisters,

Marianne and Elizabeth, who are here with us tonight. Where are they?

They’re here someplace. They’re very shy, actually.

And my brother Robert, my great friend. Where is Robert? Where is Robert?

My brother Robert, and they should be on this stage, but that’s okay. They’re great.

And also my late brother Fred, great guy. Fantastic guy. Fantastic family. I was very lucky.

Great brothers, sisters, great, unbelievable parents. To Melania and Don and Ivanka and Eric and Tiffany and Barron, I love you and I thank you, and especially for putting up with all of those hours. This was tough.

This was tough. This political stuff is nasty, and it is tough. So I want to thank my family very much. Really fantastic. Thank you all. Thank you all. Lara, unbelievable job. Unbelievable. Vanessa, thank you. Thank you very much. What a great group.

You’ve all given me such incredible support, and I will tell you that we have a large group of people. You know, they kept saying we have a small staff. Not so small. Look at all of the people that we have. Look at all of these people.

And Kellyanne and Chris and Rudy and Steve and David. We have got tremendously talented people up here, and I want to tell you it’s been very, very special.

I want to give a very special thanks to our former mayor, Rudy Giuliani. He’s unbelievable. Unbelievable. He traveled with us and he went through meetings, and Rudy never changes. Where is Rudy. Where is he?

[Chanting “Rudy”]

Gov. Chris Christie, folks, was unbelievable. Thank you, Chris. The first man, first senator, first major, major politician — let me tell you, he is highly respected in Washington because he is as smart as you get. Sen. Jeff Sessions. Where is Jeff? A great man. Another great man, very tough competitor. He was not easy. He was not easy. Who is that? Is that the mayor that showed up? Is that Rudy?

Up here. Really a friend to me, but I’ll tell you, I got to know him as a competitor because he was one of the folks that was negotiating to go against those Democrats, Dr. Ben Carson. Where’s been? Where is Ben?

By the way, Mike Huckabee is here someplace, and he is fantastic. Mike and his familiar bring Sarah, thank you very much. Gen. Mike Flynn. Where is Mike? And Gen. Kellogg. We have over 200 generals and admirals that have endorsed our campaign and there are special people.

We have 22 Congressional Medal of Honor people. A very special person who, believe me, I read reports that I wasn’t getting along with him. I never had a bad second with him. He’s an unbelievable star. He is — that’s right, how did you possibly guess? Let me tell you about Reince. I’ve said Reince. I know it. I know it. Look at all of those people over there. I know it,

Reince is a superstar. I said, they can’t call you a superstar, Reince, unless we win it. Like Secretariat. He would not have that bust at the track at Belmont.

Reince is really a star and he is the hardest-working guy, and in a certain way I did this. Reince, come up here. Get over here, Reince.

Boy, oh, boy, oh, boy. It’s about time you did this right. My god. Nah, come here. Say something.

[Reince Priebus: Ladies and gentlemen, the next president of the united States, Donald Trump! Thank you. It’s been an honor. God bless. Thank God.]

Amazing guy. Our partnership with the RNC was so important to the success and what we’ve done, so I also have to say, I’ve gotten to know some incredible people.

The Secret Service people. They’re tough and they’re smart and they’re sharp and I don’t want to mess around with them, I can tell ya. And when I want to go and wave to a big group of people and they rip me down and put me back down in the seat, but they are fantastic people so I want to thank the Secret Service.

And law enforcement in New York City, they’re here tonight. These are spectacular people, sometimes under appreciated unfortunately. We appreciate them. So it’s been what they call an historic event, but to be really historic, we have to do a great job, and I promise you that I will not let you down. We will do a great job. We will do a great job. I look very much forward to being your president, and hopefully at the end of two years or three years or four years or maybe even eight years you will say so many of you worked so hard for us, with you. You will say that — you will say that that was something that you were — really were very proud to do and I can — thank you very much.

And I can only say that while the campaign is over, our work on this movement is now really just beginning. We’re going to get to work immediately for the American people, and we’re going to be doing a job that hopefully you will be so proud of your president. You will be so proud.

Again, it’s my honor.

It’s an amazing evening. It’s been an amazing two-year period, and I love this country. Thank you.

Thank you very much. Thank you to Mike Pence.

It was a modest speech for a person who’s going to take command of Oval Office.

Read further:

Trump’s Victory a slap on Media

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/09/trump-slapped-media/

arrested-ds-160x32

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com

Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

TRUMP Slapped Media

TRUMP’S Victory A Slap on Media

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Clearly it is a Slap right on the face of Arrogant Main Stream Media, The so called Honorable Pollsters and Pundits were so wrong that everything they said all year should have been Scrapped and disregarded. I am sorry I didn’t have the means to do so.

Take example, Las Vegas lawyer Robert Barnes, who has, since the primaries, consistently predicted a Trump victory and who has now made hundreds of thousands of dollars for himself and the clients he advised to place bets on Trump with European bookmakers. The signs he and other gamblers saw — all of them regarded rather Unscientific — turned out to be more valid than the Arrogant opinions and Authoritative-looking calculations of Pollsters, Academics, Political operatives and Veteran commentators and other mercenaries of Main stream Media .

Trump demolished all preconceived notions about American politics and dashed Hillary Clintons hopes of the highest office forever

They should have listened to Barnes, and to dozens of ordinary Americans who explained why they preferred Trump to Clinton. Most were unhappy about their economic situation, particularly rising Obamacare premiums and the precariousness of their incomes, and every one of them considered Clinton corrupt. As one Trump supporter in Orlando put it Tuesday night, “I’d rather have the mafia run the U.S. government than Hillary Clinton: They are less crooked.”

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That should have told them something important — or, rather, confirmed something they came to knew from the Counting Booths and Electoral College.

Trump won because, by the end of his campaign, he wasn’t just a nationalist populist, He was also an anti-corruption crusader.

 “The American people don’t like corruption.”The American People don’t like Crooked Hillary, The American People don’t like Crooked Media.

Despite of all odds Trump managed to strike a chord with the American people as an unorthodox candidate without a political background.

Congratulations and Best of Luck...!

Read stories:

The Trumgeddon

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/trumpgeddon

Early Voting may break hearts

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/04/early-voting-in-2016-us-presidential-polls-may-break-hearts

Hillary Bhakt U.S Media

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/01/hillary-bhakt-u-s-media

Trumpet Sounded: And there came hail and fire

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/10/30/trumpet-sounded

A crooked Election

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/10/29/a-crooked-election

Leaked Emails predicted Trump’s rise

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/leaked-email-predicted-trumps-rise

arrested-ds-160x32

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com

Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

FBI in Hurry | Once again cleared Hillary Clinton

FBI announces it has not changed mind on charges

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Just before the final hours of Polling FBI swung into action and cleared the path of White House for Hillary Clinton

FBI Director James Comey
FBI Director James Comey

Hillary Clinton received an unexpected boost to her campaign with just hours left before the US presidential election as the FBI announced on Sunday night that it had found no evidence of criminal wrongdoing in her use of a private email server.

James Comey, the FBI director, took the nation by surprise when he released a second letter in which he said the FBI had not changed its conclusions from its first report on Mrs Clinton in July.

The announcement, made as Americans prepared to go to the polls on Tuesday, lifted a shadow left hanging over the Democrat candidate. It followed a surge of support from Hispanic voters in the latest polls.

The announcement will raise further questions about the role of the FBI in the campaign, its impact on the democratic process and the timing of its statements.

The agency had already been plunged into controversy when the inquiry into the latest tranche of emails was announced during the course of the campaign.

Mr Comey said in his new letter: “Since my letter, the FBI investigative team has been working around the clock to process and review a large volume of emails from a device obtained in connection with an unrelated criminal investigation.

“During that process we reviewed all of the communications that were to or from Hillary Clinton while she was secretary of state. Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton. I am very grateful to the professionals at the FBI for doing an extraordinary amount of high-quality work in a short period of time.”

Mr Comey had announced nine days ago that new emails were being investigated. They had been found on the laptop of Anthony Weiner, the disgraced estranged husband of Huma Abedin, a top Clinton aide. He is under a separate investigation for allegedly sexting an underage girl.

The Clinton campaign immediately responded, welcoming the move.

“We are glad to see that he has found, as we were confident that he would, that he’s confirmed the conclusions that he reached in July,” said Jennifer Palmieri, the campaign’s communications manager. “And we’re glad that this matter is resolved.”

Last night’s announcement is expected to help Hillary further.

Kellyanne Conway, Mr Trump’s campaign manager, said Mr Comey had “mishandled the investigation from the beginning” and questioned the idea that the FBI could have carried out a thorough investigation in such a short time, but told MSNBC that the announcement would have no effect on the race.

Speaking to a rally in Minnesota, Mr Trump said: “She’s the most corrupt person ever to seek the presidency of the US. Clinton will be under investigation for a long time for the many crimes against her [name]. It’s a rigged system and she’s protected.”

The FBI was already under huge pressure from Democrats to explain why it took the unprecedented decision to make public so close to an election that it was investigating a new batch of emails related to Mrs Clinton.

Theresa May said on Sunday night that ­elections should be “calm and ­measured” and focused on issues as she spoke about the tone of the US presidential election.

Asked if she would repeat criticism of Mr Trump, voiced when she was home secretary, Mrs May said: “I take a simple view about the way in which I like to see campaigns being conducted; I like them to be conducted in a calm and measured way with proper consideration of the issues.”

Trump: ‘Hillary Clinton is guilty. She knows it, The FBI knows it. The people know it.’

In Moon township, west Pennsylvania, Trump lashed out at Hillary Clinton – calling her “the most corrupt person ever to run for president of the United States.” On the email investigation, he said: “Hillary Clinton is guilty. The FBI knows it. She knows it. The people know it… We are to deliver justice at the ballot box.” He accused the media of double standards and said the political system was “rigged.” Trump joked that if he’d been caught being fed debate questions in advance, as he says Clinton was, “they’d reinstitute the electric chair.”

Speaking to an audience of several thousand in an industrial area, he also promised to bring back steel and coal jobs. He said that refugee programmes will be suspended, which received a loud cheer”, and that Clinton created Isis by creating “a vacuum” of power in the Middle East. “We are fighting for every forgotten man, woman and child in this nation… Dream big. We are just two days away from the change you’ve been waiting for your entire life.”

Trump campaign manager: ‘Maybe the foundation is still under investigation’

Kellyanne Conway was asked repeatedly whether it was irresponsible for Donald Trump to speculate that the FBI had found the “motherload” on Hillary Clinton and that she would face indictment.

“Everybody speculated for nine days,” she said.

If FBI conclusions remain unchanged, that means she still was reckless & careless, still lied about classified info.

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The Trump response

Donald Trump is speaking in Michigan, and lashing out against the “rigged system” that he claims allowed Hillary Clinton to avoid charges over her emails

Trump says FBI didn’t really review emails: “you cant review 650,000 emails in eight days. You cant do it folks. Hillary Clinton is guilty.”

Democrats asking questions

More from Ruth Sherlock, on the reaction from the other side of the aisle:

Democrats in congress warned last night that there would be “many questions” into the  FBI’s handling of the Hillary Clinton email scandal, as pressure mounted on its director to explain his actions.

Whilst Mr Comey’s announcement brought profound relief to Mrs Clinton’s campaign, it did little to stem the outrage of Democratic politicians who said Mr Comey’s initial intervention was illegitimately influencing the election, and accused the FBI of meddling in partisan politics.

“It’s impossible to fully undo the damage of the last nine days,” a senior Democrat said, speaking on condition of anonymity, in the hours after Mr Comey cleared Mrs Clinton’s name.

Tim Kaine, Mrs Clinton’s vice presidential running mate over the weekend attacked the FBI as being a “leaky sieve” that was “actively working” to hand Donald Trump the presidency.

“This just absolutely staggering,” he said, calling it a “massive blow” to the “integrity” of the agency.

But other Democrats had a harder time hiding their annoyance.

“Congrats to the FBI for working so hard to clear up the suspicion it needlessly created,” former Justice Department spokesman and Clinton supporter Matthew Miller wrote on Twitter. “Next time, maybe just stick to the rules though?”

Republican fury at Comey

Republicans in congress reacted with fury to the FBI director’s announcement clearing Hillary Clinton of criminal wrongdoing two days before the election.

James Comey caused a second shock to the presidential race on Sunday, stating the agency had not changed its conclusions on Mrs Clinton’s use of a private email whilst she was secretary of state.

“None of this changes the fact that the FBI continues to investigate the Clinton Foundation for corruption involving her tenure as secretary of state,” said Reince Priebus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee.

“Hillary Clinton should never be president.”

Paul Ryan, the Republican house speaker said that, despite Mr Comey’s findings, Mrs Clinton’s handling of classified information on a private email server when she was secretary of state has “put our nations secrets at risk”.

And Newt Gingrich, a top Republican ally of Donald Trump last night accused him  of caving to political pressure and questioned how he could come to the conclusion so quickly.

How we got here

The winding road that led us to Mr Comey’s announcement today

  1. Congress probes Hillary Clinton over her role in the Benghazi attack that killed a US ambassador
  2. During that investigation, it is determined that Mrs Clinton used a private email server to conduct government business
  3. The FBI launches an investigation into whether Mrs Clinton knowingly put America’s secrets at risk through her email practices
  4. James Comey announces in July that “no reasonable prosecutor” would pursue criminal charges against Mrs Clinton
  5. Mr Comey sends a letter to members of Congress on October 28 stating that new “pertinent” emails had been found, and that Mrs Clinton is once again under investigation
  6. It emerges that the emails were taken from the laptop of Anthony Weiner, the disgraced former Congressman and estranged husband to Huma Abedin, a top Clinton aide
  7. Donald Trump calls the news “bigger than Watergate”, Democrats accuse Mr Comey of inappropriately influencing the election
  8. Mr Comey announces that nothing was found in the new emails that changed his decision from July

Trump: ‘Clinton corrupt, no matter what FBI says’

Donald Trump has described Hillary Clinton as the “most corrupt person ever to seek the Presidency” less than half an hour after the FBI cleared her.

The Republican candidate refused to change tack despite the announcement by the head of the FBI, saying that “it’s a rigged system and she’s protected”.

Mr Trump had put the FBI’s investigation at the heart of his campaign and enjoyed a surge in the polls after it was formally re-opened last month.

The rally in Minneapolis was part of a dash through six states in the final 48 hours of the election campaign, Mr Trump was defiant.

Speaking to 4,500 people in an airport hanger, he said: “She’s the most corrupt person ever to seek the Presidency of the US. Clinton will be under investigation for a long time for the many crimes against her. It’s a rigged system and she’s protected.”

Trump and Clinton spokespeople argue it out on Twitter

Kellyanne Conway, Mr Trump’s campaign manager, responds to Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon on Twitter.

She says if the Clinton camp was so confident of the outcome why did they attack Mr Comey over the last week.

Still, the Trump camp is going to have to accept they’ve lost this one. Mrs Clinton is definitely not going to be locked up.

Paul Ryan says Hillary Clinton still “put the nation’s secrets at risk”

Paul Ryan, the Republican House Speaker, said: “Regardless of this decision the undisputed finding of the FBI’s investigation is that Secretary Clinton put our nation’s secrets at risk and in doing so compromised our national security. She simply believes she’s above the law and always plays by her own rules.

“Fortunately, the American people have the opportunity to ensure Secretary Clinton never gets her hands on classified information again. Let’s bring the Clinton era to an end by voting for Donald Trump on Tuesday.”

What Pollsters say

Though Clinton’s lead in the polls had been shrinking prior to then, her aides and several pollsters said that the news won’t help the dampened enthusiasm among Democratic voters and further hurt her standing.

What about early voters?

Once again, a late development in this election leaves early voters scratching their heads.

The effect of Sunday’s news on the election is hard to predict. Millions of people have already cast ballots during the days in which all that was known was that the FBI was re-investigating Clinton’s emails.

Additionally, GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump and his surrogates have spent the past week arguing that an indictment against Clinton was in the offing. They even put out television advertisement highlighting the role played by Anthony Weiner in the saga.

The Clinton campaign was relatively muted in its initial response to the news.

More than 40 million people have already voted.

Those who did so over the last week did so with the knowledge that the FBI was investigating a new batch of potentially explosive Clinton-related emails. Now it’s not.

The question is did it affect anyone’s vote?

Read further stories:

The Trumgeddon

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/trumpgeddon

Early Voting may break hearts

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/04/early-voting-in-2016-us-presidential-polls-may-break-hearts

Hillary Bhakt U.S Media

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/01/hillary-bhakt-u-s-media

Trumpet Sounded: And there came hail and fire

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/10/30/trumpet-sounded

A crooked Election

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/10/29/a-crooked-election

Leaked Emails predicted Trump’s rise

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/leaked-email-predicted-trumps-rise

arrested-ds-160x32

https://arresteddevelopments.wordpress.com

Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

 

 

Keep Calm when polls show the presidential race swinging wildly

Keep Calm when polls show the presidential race swinging wildly

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Presented here for you a good piece for you to keep in your mind while awaiting the U.S Elections results right in front of your idiot box, it is published in the Big Idea section of Vox meant  for outside contributors’ opinions about, and analysis of, the most important issues in politics and culture.

What do the pre-election polls tell us? We’ve had some big swings: After the Democratic convention, Hillary Clinton seemed to be locking the election up, then Trump came back to a near-tie, then came a series of events — three debates, sexual assault revelations, and a war within the Republican party — which seemed to knock Trump out of the race. Then, more recently, a series of FBI leaks brought the polls back to a near-tie. Put this together, and you get the impression of a volatile electorate: Anything can happen, and all may depend on voters’ reaction to last-minute news of Chris Christie, Melania Trump, or whatever Julian Assange may have up his sleeve.

Actually, though, not many voters change their opinions during the general election campaign. This finding is borne out by my research with Sharad Goel, Doug Rivers, and David Rothschild on surveys during the 2012 campaign, Alan Abramowitz’s analysis of polls during the 2016 campaign showing a nearly perfect tracking between Clinton or Trump support in a survey and the proportion of Democrats or Republicans in the sample, and an analysis by Ben Lauderdale and Doug Riversof surveys during the recent campaign.

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Why, then, do the polls swing so much? This can mostly be explained by differential nonresponse to pollsters: Clinton goes up when fewer Democrats answer a survey, and Trump goes up when Democrats are less likely to respond. As Lauderdale and Rivers put it, “when things are going badly for a candidate, their supporters tend to stop participating in polls.” This is how new events can have big effects on the polls even if they aren’t changing many vote intentions.

For example, after the FBI letter on Clinton a week or so ago, I predicted that Clinton would fall in the polls — not because she was going to lose many votes but because the news would pump up a lot of Trump supporters who would then become more enthusiastic about the election and respond to surveys. The preceding weeks had been full of bad news for the Republican candidate, hence his supporters were dejected and not participating in polls. During that period, I and others suspected that Clinton’s lead in the polls had been exaggerating her strength among the electorate.

Four questions remain:

  1. Why are we talking about all this now; why was differential nonresponse not a part of the conversation in previous elections?
  2. Is this bias a problem with poll aggregators such as Nate Silver?
  3. Does likely voter screening fix the problem?
  4. Supposing that my colleagues and I are right that much of the swing in polls is explainable by differential nonresponse: Would this then also show up as differential voter turnout? In other words, would a failure to respond to polls predict failure to turn up on Election Day?

Here are my answers.

  1. Differential nonresponse is a bigger deal now than it used to be, for two reasons. Survey response rates are lower. Not too many decades ago, quality polls had response rates over 50 percent; now a survey is lucky to get 10 percent participation. As a result, responding to surveys is much more optional, and we’d expect differential nonresponse to be a bigger deal. At the same time, the electorate is more polarized, and fewer people change their minds during the campaign. Thus, compared with previous decades, the “signal” of actual swings is lower and the “noise” of nonresponse is higher, and we need to be concerned about this source of bias more than ever before.
  2. Yes, poll aggregators are subject to this bias, because a poll average or poll-based model is only as good as the surveys that go into it. It would be possible for a forecasting model to attempt to correct for differential nonresponse bias by adjusting surveys based on the partisanship and recalled vote of their respondents, but this would require more information than is usually collected by poll aggregation sites.
  3. No, likely voter screening won’t fix differential nonresponse bias. Actually, it can make the problem worse. Poll fluctuations are driven by fluctuations in enthusiasm, and I’d expect that screening for likely voters — which is just another measure of interest in the election —would just exacerbate the bias and increase these artifactual swings.
  4. Finally, what about voter turnout? Voter turnout rates in the general election for a US president is about 60 percent. Survey response rates are below 10 percent. Survey response is a much more optional thing, hence it makes sense to see much bigger swings in differential survey responses than in differential turnout. So, yes, differential turnout in voting is a thing, it’s just not as big as differential nonresponse in surveys.

Put it together, and what do we have? Very little evidence of opinion swings and months of polls that are consistent with a narrow but stable Clinton lead.

Andrew Gelman is a professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University. He blogs at Statistical Modeling.

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