Donald Trump’s Inaugural address

Donald Trump’s Inaugural address


Donald Trump has been sworn in as the 45th president of the United States.

To a crowd of hundreds of thousands Trump gave his first inaugural address to the American people after taking the oath of office.


Presidents have been inaugurated on January 20, since Franklin D. Roosevelt took the oath of office in 1937, moving up from the previous day of March 4.

The swearing-in is just one of the day’s activities.

Traditionally, presidents have started the day with a morning worship service and Trump was handed the nuclear codes and briefed on firing missiles ahead of the ceremony.

The security convoy escorting the Trumps to church was enormous.

Trump was sworn in using two Bibles – his own, and the one used by Abraham Lincoln at his first inauguration in 1861, and the oath will be administered by Chief Justice John Roberts.

The Lincoln Bible is bound in burgundy velvet, and was also used for Barack Obama’s inaugurations in 2009 and 2013.

In front of a crowd of around 900,000 Americans, Trump took to the stage and vowed to unite a divided country in his inaugural address.


Below is a rush transcript of Trump’s speech in full:

Chief Justice Roberts, President Carter, President Clinton, President Bush, President Obama, fellow Americans, and people of the world, thank you”.


We, the citizens of America, are now joined in a great national effort to rebuild our country and restore its promise for all of our people. Together, we will determine the course of America and the world for many, many years to come.

We will face challenges. We will confront hardships, but we will get the job done. Every four years, we gather on these steps to carry out the orderly and peaceful transfer of power. And we are grateful to President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama for their gracious aid throughout this transition. They have been magnificent. Thank you.

Today’s ceremony however, has very special meaning, because today we are not merely transferring power from one administration to another or from one party to another, but we are transferring power from Washington, DC, and giving it back to you, the people.


For too long, a small group in our nation’s Capital have reaped the rewards of government while people have borne the cost. Washington flourished, but the people did not share in its wealth.

Politicians prospered, but the jobs left and the factories closed. The establishment protected itself, but not the citizens of our country. Their victories have not been your victories. Their triumphs have not been your triumphs, and while they celebrated in our nation’s capital, there was little to celebrate for struggling families all across our land.

That all changes starting right here and right now, because this moment is your moment. It belongs to you. It belongs to everyone gathered here today and everyone watching all across America. This is your day. This is your celebration. And this, the United States of America, is your country.

Because what truly matters is not what truly controls our government but whether our government is controlled by the people. January 20, 2017, will be remembered as the day the people became the rulers of this nation again.

The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer. Everyone is listening to you now. You came by the tens of millions to become part of a historic movement, the likes of which the world has never seen before.

At the center of this movement is a crucial conviction, that a nation exists to serve its citizens. Americans want great schools for their children, safe neighborhoods for their families, and good jobs for themselves. These are just and reasonable demands of righteous people and a righteous public. But for too many of our citizens, a different reality exists.

Mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities, rusted-out factories, scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation, an education system flush with cash but which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of all knowledge.

And the crime and the gangs and the drugs that have stolen too many lives and robbed our country of so much unrealized potential. This American carnage stops right here and stops right now.

We are one nation, and their pain is our pain. Their dreams are our dreams, and their success will be our success. We share one heart, one home, and one glorious destiny.

The oath of office I take today is an oath of allegiance to all Americans.

For many decades, we have enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry, subsidized the armies of other countries while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military.

We have defended other nations’ borders while refusing to defend our own, and spent trillions and trillions of dollars overseas while America’s infrastructure has fallen into disrepair and decay.

We’ve made other countries rich while the wealth, strength, and confidence of our country has dissipated over the horizon. One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores with not even a thought about the millions and millions of American workers that were left behind. The wealth of our middle class has been ripped from their homes and then redistributed all across the world.

But that is the past, and now we are looking only to the future. We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power. From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land. From this day forward, it’s going to be only America first, America first.

Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies, and destroying our jobs.

Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength. I will fight for you with every breath in my body. And I will never, ever let you down.

America will start winning again, winning like never before. We will bring back our jobs. We will bring back our borders. We will bring back our wealth. And we will bring back our dreams. We will build new roads and highways and bridges and airports and tunnels and railways all across our wonderful nation. We will get our people off of welfare and back to work,rebuilding our country with American hands and American labor.

We will follow two simple rules: Buy American and hire American.

We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world, but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first. We do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone, but rather to let it shine as an example. We will shine for everyone to follow. We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones and reform the world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate from the face of the Earth.

At the bedrock of our politics will be a total allegiance to the United States of America and through our loyalty to our country, we will rediscover our loyalty to each other. When you open your heart to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice. The Bible tells us how good and pleasant it is when God’s people live together in unity. We must speak our minds openly, debate our disagreements honestly, but always pursue solidarity.

When America is united, America is totally unstoppable.

There should be no fear. We are protected, and we will always be protected. We will be protected by the great men and women of our military and law enforcement. And most importantly, we will be protected by God.

Finally, we must think big and dream even bigger. In America, we understand that a nation is only living as long it is striving. We will no longer accept politicians who are all talk and no action, constantly complaining but never doing anything about it. The time for empty talk is over.

Now arrives the hour of action. Do not allow anyone to tell you that it cannot be done. No challenge can match the heart and fight and spirit of America. We will not fail. Our country will thrive and prosper again. We stand at the birth of a new millennium, ready to unlock the mysteries of space, to free the Earth from the miseries of disease and harness the energies, industries, and technologies of tomorrow.

A new national pride will stir ourselves, lift our sights, and heal our divisions. It’s time to remember that old wisdom our soldiers will never forget, that whether we are black or brown or white, we all bleed the same red blood of patriots. We all enjoy the same glorious freedoms. And we all salute the same great American flag.

And whether a child is born in the urban sprawl of Detroit or the windswept plains of Nebraska, they look at the same night sky. They fill their heart with the same dreams, and they are infused with the breath of life by the same almighty creator.

So to all Americans, in every city near and far, small and large, from mountain to mountain, from ocean to ocean, hear these words: You will never be ignored again.

Your voice, your hopes, and your dreams will define our American destiny. And your courage, goodness, and love will forever guide us along the way.

Together, we will make America strong again. We will make America wealthy again. We will make America proud again. We will make America safe again.

And yes, together, we will make America great again.

Thank you. God bless you. And God bless America”.

Melania and Donald Trump on the way to church on inauguration day

Trump’s election was greeted with concern by many countries around the world, in part because of the potential for an isolationist foreign policy. Now he has been sworn in, when does Trump get the chance to start work on the controversial policies which have divided a nation?



Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015



NOAA data demonstrates that 2016 was not the ‘hottest year ever’

@NOAA data demonstrates that 2016 was not the ‘hottest year ever’ in the USA


Today, there’s all sorts of caterwauling over the NYT headline by Justin Gillis that made it above the fold in all caps, no less:  FOR THIRD YEAR, THE EARTH IN 2016 HIT RECORD HEAT.


I’m truly surprised they didn’t add an exclamation point too. (h/t to Ken Caldiera for the photo)

Much of that “record heat” is based on interpolation of data in the Arctic, such as BEST has done. For example:

But in reality, there’s just not much data at the poles, there is no permanent thermometers at the North pole, since sea ice drifts, is unstable, and melts in the summer as it has for millennia. Weather stations can’t be permanent in the Arctic ocean. So, the data is often interpolated from the nearest land-based thermometers.

To show this, look at how NASA GISS shows data with and without data interpolation to the North pole:

WITH 1200 kilometer interpolation:

WITHOUT 1200 kilometer interpolation:


Here is the polar view:

WITH 1200 kilometer interpolation:


WITHOUT 1200 kilometer interpolation:



Grey areas in the maps indicate missing data.

What a difference that interpolation makes.

So you can see that much of the claims of “global record heat” hinge on interpolating the Arctic temperature data where there is none. For example, look at this map of Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN) coverage:


As for the Continental USA, which has fantastically dense thermometer coverage as seen above, we were not even close to a record year according to NOAA’s own data. Annotations mine on the NOAA generated image:



  • NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: U.S. Time Series, Average Temperature, published January 2017, retrieved on January 19, 2017 from

That plot was done using NOAA’s own plotter, which you can replicate using the link above. Note that 2012 was warmer than 2016, when we had the last big El Niño. That’s using all of the thermometers in the USA that NOAA manages and utilizes, both good and bad.

What happens if we select the state-of-the-art pristine U.S. Climate Reference Network data?

Same answer – 2016 was not a record warm year in the USA, 2012 was:



Interestingly enough, if we plot the monthly USCRN data, we see that sharp cooling in the last datapoint which goes below the zero anomaly line:



Cool times ahead!

Added: In the USCRN annual (January to December) graph above, note that the last three years in the USA were not record high temperature years either.


Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015



Journalist Who Exposed CIA Found Dead

Hero Journalist Who Exposed CIA Infiltration and Manipulation of Media Found Dead

Udo Ulfkotte, a brave, selfless, hero died on Friday at the age of 56. The legacy he leaves behind is one that gives context to today’s geopolitical relations between the United States and Russia.

Ulfkotte was a world-class German journalist, working for a major Germany newspaper, who came out and exposed how the mainstream media lies for the CIA.

In an interview with RT in October 2014, Ulfkotte explained the CIA’s practice of manipulation and bribery:

“I’ve been a journalist for about 25 years, and I was educated to lie, to betray, and not to tell the truth to the public.

“But seeing right now within the last months how the German and American media tries to bring war to the people in Europe, to bring war to Russia — this is a point of no return and I’m going to stand up and say it is not right what I have done in the past, to manipulate people, to make propaganda against Russia, and it is not right what my colleagues do and have done in the past because they are bribed to betray the people, not only in Germany, all over Europe.”

Ulfkotte also revealed that he was forced to publish the work of intelligence agencies under his name, and he was threatened with termination if he did not comply.

The main reason he said he came out was because the intelligence agencies were pushing disinformation in order to push for war between Europe and Russia.

Ulfkotte’s death was allegedly the result of a heart attack. However, he was aware the possible repercussions that could come from what he was exposing. In an interview with Russia Insider, he said:

“When I told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Ulfkotte’s newspaper) that I would publish the book, their lawyers sent me a letter threatening with all legal consequences if I would publish any names or secrets — but I don’t mind. You see, I don’t have children to take care of.”

He knew he would face persecution from the state, and he did. Ulfkotte told RT that German prosecutors searched his house on at least six separate occasions.

Similar information was disclosed through the Church Committee Senate hearings that happened in 1975 with Sen. Frank Church leading the way and exposing the fact that the same thing happened in the U.S. with Operation Mockingbird.

Udo Ulfkotte: European media writing pro-US stories under CIA pressure (more on the subject here):

This all brings us back to now, where we are seeing intelligence agencies and the mainstream media pushing for war with Russia, and clashing against Trump.

Ulfkotte also revealed the fact that there are mainstream media journalists who have been trained as CIA operatives, which is a topic WeAreChange has covered extensively over the years.

Also at the Church hearings, it was revealed that the CIA has developed a poison dart gun that “gives deadly heart attacks and leaves no trace.”

We don’t have all of the facts, and we don’t know exactly what happened to Ulfkotte, but we do know that he was a hero who put everything on the line in order for you to know the truth.



Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

CIA Has Interfered With Over 81 Foreign Elections in the Past Century


The U.S. is no stranger to interfering in the elections of other countries

This number doesn’t include military coups and regime change efforts following the election of candidates the U.S. didn’t like, notably those in Iran, Guatemala and Chile.

The CIA has accused Russia of interfering in the 2016 presidential election (with absolutely zero evidence) by hacking into Democratic and Republican computer networks and selectively releasing emails.

But critics might point out the U.S. has done similar things.

The U.S. has a long history of attempting to influence presidential elections in other countries – it’s done so as many as 81 times between 1946 and 2000, according to a database amassed by political scientist Dov Levin of Carnegie Mellon University.

That number doesn’t include military coups and regime change efforts following the election of candidates the U.S. didn’t like…

like, notably those in Iran, Guatemala and Chile. Nor does it include general assistance with the electoral process, such as election monitoring.

Levin defines intervention as “a costly act which is designed to determine the election results [in favor of] one of the two sides.”

These acts, carried out in secret two-thirds of the time, include funding the election campaigns of specific parties, disseminating misinformation or propaganda, training locals of only one side in various campaigning or get-out-the-vote techniques, helping one side design their campaign materials, making public pronouncements or threats in favor of or against a candidate, and providing or withdrawing foreign aid.

In 59% of these cases, the side that received assistance came to power, although Levin estimates the average effect of “partisan electoral interventions” to be only about a 3% increase in vote share.

The U.S. hasn’t been the only one trying to interfere in other countries’ elections, according to Levin’s data.

Russia attempted to sway 36 foreign elections from the end of World War II to the turn of the century – meaning that, in total, at least one of the two great powers of the 20th century intervened in about 1 of every 9 competitive, national-level executive elections in that time period.

Italy’s 1948 general election is an early example of a race where U.S. actions probably influenced the outcome.

“We threw everything, including the kitchen sink” at helping the Christian Democrats beat the Communists in Italy, said Levin, including covertly delivering “bags of money” to cover campaign expenses, sending experts to help run the campaign, subsidizing “pork” projects like land reclamation, and threatening publicly to end U.S. aid to Italy if the Communists were elected.

Levin said that U.S. intervention probably played an important role in preventing a Communist Party victory, not just in 1948, but in seven subsequent Italian elections.

Throughout the Cold War, U.S. involvement in foreign elections was mainly motivated by the goal of containing communism, said Thomas Carothers, a foreign policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“The U.S. didn’t want to see left-wing governments elected, and so it did engage fairly often in trying to influence elections in other countries,” Carothers said.

This approach carried over into the immediate post-Soviet period.

In the 1990 Nicaragua elections, the CIA leaked damaging information on alleged corruption by the Marxist Sandinistas to German newspapers, according to Levin.

The opposition used those reports against the Sandinista candidate, Daniel Ortega. He lost to opposition candidate Violeta Chamorro.

In Czechoslovakia that same year, the U.S. provided training and campaign funding to Vaclav Havel’s party and its Slovak affiliate as they planned for the country’s first democratic election after its transition away from communism.

“The thinking was that we wanted to make sure communism was dead and buried,” said Levin.

Even after that, the U.S. continued trying to influence elections in its favor.

In Haiti after the 1986 overthrow of dictator and U.S. ally Jean-Claude “Baby Doc” Duvalier, the CIA sought to support particular candidates and undermine Jean-Bertrande Aristide, a Roman Catholic priest and proponent of liberation theology.

The New York Times reported in the 1990s that the CIA had on its payroll members of the military junta that would ultimately unseat Aristide after he was democratically elected in a landslide over Marc Bazin, a former World Bank official and finance minister favored by the U.S.

The U.S. also attempted to sway Russian elections. In 1996, with the presidency of Boris Yeltsin and the Russian economy flailing, President Clinton endorsed a $10.2-billion loan from the International Monetary Fund linked to privatization, trade liberalization and other measures that would move Russia toward a capitalist economy.

Yeltsin used the loan to bolster his popular support, telling voters that only he had the reformist credentials to secure such loans, according to media reports at the time.

He used the money, in part, for social spending before the election, including payment of back wages and pensions.

In the Middle East, the U.S. has aimed to bolster candidates who could further the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

In 1996, seeking to fulfill the legacy of assassinated Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and the peace accords the U.S. brokered, Clinton openly supported Shimon Peres, convening a peace summit in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el Sheik to boost his popular support and inviting him to a meeting at the White House a month before the election.

“We were persuaded that if [Likud candidate Benjamin] Netanyahu were elected, the peace process would be closed for the season,” said Aaron David Miller, who worked at the State Department at the time.

In 1999, in a more subtle effort to sway the election, top Clinton strategists, including James Carville, were sent to advise Labor candidate Ehud Barak in the election against Netanyahu.

In Yugoslavia, the U.S. and NATO had long sought to cut off Serbian nationalist and Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic from the international system through economic sanctions and military action.

In 2000, the U.S. spent millions of dollars in aid for political parties, campaign costs and independent media. Funding and broadcast equipment provided to the media arms of the opposition were a decisive factor in electing opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica as Yugoslav president, according to Levin.

“If it wouldn’t have been for overt intervention… Milosevic would have been very likely to have won another term,” he said.

Reblogged on

Source: CIA Has Interfered With Over 81 Foreign Elections in the Past Century


Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015


The Dramatic Life of Refugees: Winter, Rejection, Crime, Radicalization, Terror and Death

Life of Refugees

THE BRUTAL WINTER is aggravating the situation of thousands of refugees (including children), who are living under extreme weather conditions along European borders.

The Dramatic Life of Refugees: Winter, Rejection, Crime, Radicalization, Terror and Death


THE BRUTAL WINTER is aggravating the situation of thousands of refugees (including children), who are living under extreme weather conditions along European borders. In Places like in Lesbos (Greece) and Belgrade (Serbia), the snow falls and the temperature is as low as 20-degrees celsius(-4°F).

Numerous European governments have offered shelter to an insufficient number of refugees (many of them children). UN’s and Medicines Sans Frontiers have criticised the European Union for not preparing properly for the life-threatening winter weather.

“Europe should stop making the lives of migrants and refugees more miserable,” a statement from Medicins Sans Frontieres read.

“Saving lives must be a priority and we urge state authorities across Europe to do more to assist and protect refugees and migrants,” a UNHCR spokeswoman, Cecile

The UN is warning that an important number of refugees may soon die if the European Union does not assist them. Refugees often do not have the adequate clothing, food and shelter to withstand the low temperatures.

“Children are particularly prone to respiratory illnesses at a time like this. It’s about saving lives, not about red tape and keeping to bureaucratic arrangements,” Sarah Crowe, a spokeswoman for the UN children’s agency UNICEF told a UN briefing in Geneva. “The dire situation right now is Greece.”

As if that were not enough, refugees are suffering abuse by police agents and criminal gangs, including kidnappings, physical abuse, threats and extortion.

UN’s has reported 5 confirmed deaths since the start of the year, two Iraqi men and a young Somali woman in Bulgaria, and a 20-year-old Afghan man, who was crossing the Evros river between Turkey and Greece.

The UN has reiterated its call on the European Union to assist all refugees as soon as possible before it becomes a catastrophe.

“The UN Refugee Agency is today reiterating its call to accelerate the moving of asylum seekers from the Aegean islands to the Greek mainland,” Edwards said at the Palais des Nations in Geneva.”The need for better protection will become all the more acute this weekend when temperatures on the islands are expected to drop. We are worried,” said UNHCR spokesman, Adrian Edwards.

“We are worried,” Adrian Edwards, a spokesperson for UNHCR said in Geneva.”Slowness in registration or identifying vulnerable individuals and, previously, a shortage of suitable spaces on the mainland have been factors delaying moves. Among other things this has contributed to serious overcrowding of facilities built for far fewer people, and increased protection risks,”

NGO’s and numerous international organisations are insisting that to refuse assistance to refugees isa violation of international law. Apparently, European countries are more interested in domestic affairs than in refugees. In countries like Germany, the growing social discontent against refugees has forced the government to debate whether to expel thousands of refugees or not.The decadence of Angela Merkel and the upcoming German presidential elections will influence the final decision.

In many cases, the traditional and far-right media are contributing to the criminalisation of all therefugees coming from the Middle East.

Brief Analysis of two cases:



ON JANUARY 3rd Virginia Hale, a journalist from Breitbart News, wrote the following false article:

“Revealed: 1,000-Man Mob Attack Police, Set Germany’s Oldest Church Alight on New Year’s Eve

“At New Year’s Eve celebrations in Dortmund, a mob of more than 1,000 men chanted ‘Allahu Akhbar’, launched fireworks at police, and set fire to a historic church,” Breitbart News reported.

Breitbart also claimed that a video posted by a Ruhr Nachrichten journalist showed them holding up a flag of al-Qaeda and Isis collaborators. In fact, the video shows the contrary, a man holding a flag widely flown by those opposing the current government.

The local newspaper, Ruhr Nachrichten, said that its online reporting on New Year’s Eve had been distorted by BreiBart to produce “fake news.”

The justice minister of Hesse state, Eva Kühne-Hörmann, said“the danger is that these stories spread with incredible speed and take on lives of their own.”

Tens of thousands clicked and shared the false story with the headline,“Revealed: 1,000-man mob attack police, set Germany’s oldest church alight on New Year’s Eve”.

Pantallazo-2017-01-16 15-21-59.png

Days later, Breitbart supposedly amended the article to make a few corrections.


However, it decided to keep all the falsehoods spilt over Syrian refugees about terrorism. Since its creation, Breitbart has become the American newspaper, which most fabricates false stories.


NOTE: The chief strategist and Senior Counsellor for the presidency of Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, is the co-founder of Breitbart. Com. It suggests that he will use his new position to amplify fake stories to criminalise honest immigrants.


Pantallazo-2017-01-16 15-45-31.png

MONTHS AGO, the far right propaganda, like, from Germany and other countriessuggested that Angela Merkel had taken a selfie with a terrorist, “Anas Modamani, a Syrian refugee”, The false claims soon spread on social media and went viral.


The 19-year-old was accused of terrorism and other criminal activities, including him being one of the perpetrators of the March bombings in Brussels, and was linked to the Christmas market attack in Berlin. The accusations were soon catalogued as false, but the people of social media refused to halt the spread of the false news related to his case, allowing many users to continue spreading it even in the present day.

On his part, Modamani has recently sued Facebook for not doing enough to stop the fake news and reestablished his honour.

Modamani Stated, “I was first linked to the attacks when my picture was circulated, claiming I was one of the Brussels attackers due to perceived resemblances between us,”

“When the claims started being circulated on social media, I was in Munich visiting friends.

“Some friends advised that I stay at home and avoid going out in public, which I did.

“Others encouraged me to go to the police and report what was being said about me.

“But I kind of just hoped it would go away on its own.”

“Facebook is doing a very poor job with fake news,”

“Not all fake news is illegal, but when it amounts to slander, as I believe this does, then it should be taken down.”

“Facebook has repeatedly refused to take the posts down, saying they do not violate the company’s rules,” Modamani’s lawyer said.

A Facebook representative said: “We received a takedown request from Mr Jun alleging that a specific item of content on our platform violates Mr Modamani’s right of personality.”

“Access to that reported content was quickly disabled, so we do not believe there is any basis for him to seek an injunction.”

Germany’s justice ministry is considering new policies to crack down on “fake news” by making Facebook and other social media companies criminally liable for failing to remove hate speech.

“Facebook should be treated as a media company rather than a technology company,” the justice minister said in November.

As in the previous case, some newspapers have amended the false articles, but Modamani’s honorability will never be fully restored.Thousands of people accused him of terrorism and spread it on the social media and not everyone who uses social media read newspapers, which means that there are still many people, who still think that he is a terrorist. Modami’s case shows the enormousinfluential capacity that social media has over people.

NOTE: The president-elect Donald Trump won the last U.S. elections thanks to several factors like the incompetence of Hillary Clinton. However, Trump would not have won the election without false news and the social media to spread them.

The cases of fake news mentioned in this article, represent a sample of hundreds of thousands that are spread everyday on social For many organisations, the main goal is to convince European citizens that refugees are terrorists and criminals. Unfortunately, there is a significant number of people, who already believe those falsehoods.

EUROPEANS POLITICAL LEADERS and citizens tend to forget that, during the WWII, thousands of Europeans fled to countries like Syria, Egypt and Palestine(the Middle East) seeking shelter. Therefugee camps in the Middle East were operated by MERRA (Middle East Relief and Refugee Administration) 

246f8479-6675-478c-905c-615e9602d7cd.pngUS Army General Allen Gullion and Fred K. Hoehler, Director of the United Nation’s Division of Displaced Persons predicting the movement of European refugees of World War II.

Seventy years ago, the Middle Eastern community warmly welcomed hundreds of thousands of European refugees who needed shelter. Today, to the contrary, European countries are neglecting refugees from the Middle East, alleging security issues. They believed that some terrorists are camouflaged among refugees. However, the facts show that majority of the terrorist attacks in Western countries were perpetrated by locals, who radicalised themselves.

Experience from many conflict zones teaches us that the longer these refugees are left to languish in despair in camps, the more prone they become to radicalization.

In fact, these camps are often used by terrorist organisations to attract new members. Without them, terrorism might soon be defeated. The best way to fight terrorism is by assisting refugees. European society should not forget the assistance that the Middle East gave them in the past.

The different communities in the world should work together to better understand each other regardless of their political and religion orientations.

After all, we are all human beings.

By Rester.


via The Dramatic Life of Refugees: Winter, Rejection, Crime, Radicalization, Terror and Death — ALL THE TRUTH ABOUT POLITICS RESTER



Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015


Why Is Obama Moving Troops Into Poland And Provoking A War With Russia ?

Why Is Obama Moving Troops Into Poland And Provoking A War With Russia Right Before The Inauguration?

January 20th cannot come soon enough.  Instead of stepping back and trying to ensure a smooth transition for Donald Trump, U. S President Barack Obama has decided to go hog wild and use every ounce of presidential power still available to him.  


He has been establishing a bunch of new national monuments, and on Thursday he even took time to give Joe Biden a Presidential Medal of Freedom.  

But one of the things that has people around the world  the most concerned is his endless provoking of Russia.  Every few days it seems like Obama is doing something else to aggravate Russia, and if he wasn’t leaving office in about a week I am sure that the mainstream media would be full of speculation about a possible war.

Out moving presidents are not supposed to make risky moves like this once a new president has been elected.

On Thursday, we learned that U.S. troops have been permanently deployed to Poland for the very first time

American soldiers rolled into Poland on Thursday, fulfilling a dream some Poles have had since the fall of communism in 1989 to have U.S. troops on their soil as a deterrent against Russia.

Some people waved and held up American flags as U.S. troops in tanks and other vehicles crossed into southwestern Poland from Germany and headed toward the town of Zagan, where they will be based. Poland’s prime minister and defense minister will welcome them in an official ceremony Saturday.

Poland was once a key member of the Warsaw Pact alliance, and the Russians are quite alarmed that U.S. troops will now be stationed so close to the Russian heartland.  The following comes from ABC News

“These actions threaten our interests, our security,” President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday. “Especially as it concerns a third party building up its military presence near our borders. It’s not even a European state.”

And it has also been announced that NATO troops will arrive in Lithuania in late January.  If you will remember, Lithuania was actually part of the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

All of a sudden, Russia has become enemy number one.  Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton say that Russia is to blame for Clinton’s election loss, and so at the end of December Obama expelled 35 Russian diplomats from the country.

That is the sort of thing that you do before a war starts.

Over in Europe, they are so freaked out about potential Russian interference in their elections that they are “erecting defenses to counter possible Russian cyber attacks”

Nations in Europe, where Germany and France this year hold elections, are erecting defenses to counter possible Russian cyber attacks and disinformation to sway Western politics, but intelligence experts say this might be too little and too late.

The issue of Russian “influence operations” has taken on new urgency after U.S. intelligence agencies released a non-classified assessment that President Vladimir Putin ordered a campaign to move the U.S. election in favor of Donald Trump.

European nations and NATO are setting up centers to identify “fake news”, bolstering cyber defenses and tracking use of social media which target Russian-speaking communities, far-right groups, political parties, voters and decision-makers.

Back in 2012, Barack Obama mocked Mitt Romney for saying that Russia was a serious threat to our national security.  He even joked that the 1980s were calling Romney because they wanted their foreign policy back.

At that time, Barack Obama boldly declared that the Cold War had been over for 20 years.  But now here we are just four years later and Barack Obama has gotten us into a new Cold War.  The crisis in Ukraine, the civil war in Syria, the price of oil, cyber-espionage and a whole host of other issues have brought tensions between the United States and Russia to a boiling point.

Many are hoping that relations with Russia will improve during the Trump administration, but the truth is that things could go either way.

It is important to remember that Trump will be surrounded by military people that are virulently anti-Russia.  For example, retired Marine General James Mattis has been nominated to be Defense Secretary, and this week he told Congress that Russia is the “principal threat” to U.S. security…

While much of the hearing has so far been without controveries, in the most striking moment so far, Mattis told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Russia stands as the “principal threat” to the United States’s security. He said this is because of its actions and efforts to “intimidate” other countries.

Senator John McCain questioned Mattis to get his opinion on how much of a threat Russia represents. Mattis response was that the world order is “under biggest attacks since WW2, from Russia, terrorist groups, and China’s actions in the South China Sea”, agreeing with the neocon senator that Russia is trying to break up NATO.

“I’m all for engagement” with Russia, “but we also have to recognize the reality of what Russia is up to,” Mattis told Senator Jack Reed (D-Rhode Island).

There is a great deal of concern that Trump’s view of Russia could be significantly shaped by strong military men such as Mattis.  Both Democrats and Republicans want Trump to become much more anti-Russia, and let us hope that he does not give in to the pressure.

Over in Russia, they view U. S very negatively as well.  A Gallup survey taken in mid-2016 found that current U.S. leadership (the Obama administration) only had a one percent approval rating in Russia.

Yes, you read that correctly.

You can’t get much lower than one percent.

The Russians consider themselves to be the great force for good in the world, and they consider the United States to be the great force for evil.  They openly talk about the possibility of nuclear war on their news broadcasts, and on one recent broadcast people were actually encouraged to locate the closest nuclear bomb shelter to their homes.

And in response to U.S. troops being deployed to Poland, the Russian government has deployed advanced anti-aircraft missile systems around Moscow

Russia has deployed anti-aircraft missile systems around Moscow to protect the capital from attack in the latest sign Vladimir Putin is preparing for war.

The s-400 Triumph air defence system has been providing air cover for Russian forces in Syria since November, and is now being deployed on home soil.

It is capable of hitting moving airborne targets including planes and incoming missiles and has a range of 400km.

We should be very thankful that Barack Obama is leaving office, because right now we are on a path that leads to war between U. S and Russia.

Every one should be hoping that Donald Trump will work to greatly improve relations with the Russians, but all it would take is one wrong move for things to start deteriorating once again.

A new Cold War has begun, and the stakes are incredibly high…



Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

Woman removes clothes at RBI, India

Demonetization fallout: Woman removes clothes at RBI gate

Indian Government once again retracted to its own assurances to public on Demonetization

Since the last day to exchange currency notes with banks has passed, the people are turning to RBI (as it was told by the govt) to get the new notes in lieu of their old. Unable to get a few junked currency notes exchanged, a frustrated poor woman became topless in front of RBI regional office in New Delhi.


The woman, who was with her child, was in tears when turned away by guards after repeated request to exchange her junked notes. In protest she sat in front of the RBI entrance gate.

When the guards tried to forcefully move her away from the entrance, the woman in disgust took off her clothes and sat topless in front of the iron gate, stunning the onlookers as well as the security personnel.

Later, the RBI guards called the police and she along with her kid was bundled away to police station, thus ending the surcharged drama at the high profile building which is just a stone’s throw away from the Parliament House.

Many others including retired and aged persons who have come to exchange their old notes said the government should not go back on the promise made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his November 8 address to the nation that old notes could be exchanged at the select RBI offices till March 31.

A day later Members of All Democratic Women’s Association (AIDWA) staged a protest before RBI regional office on Street here, registering their anger over theincident.

The women protesters, numbering around 35, raised slogans against RBI and attracting a crowd of passersby.

 “This incident exposed how people, especially women were suffering due to and lack of in banks and ATMs. We have conducted a survey which reveals that ATMs in many areas are lying without for a long time,” said general secretary Asha Sharma.
Central Governments key ally Shiv Sena described it as the “worst regime in 10,000 years” and said the BJP leaders are living in fool’s paradise to think that the exercise would eradicate black money after putting even women to great difficulty.
Shiv Sena said the plight of the hapless mother looked like a “government sponsored Nirbhaya tragedy.
“If the government cannot see and understand the suffering of this woman, then such a ruthless and deaf regime would not have been in existence in the last 10,000 years,” the Sena said in an editorial in party mouthpiece ‘Saamana’.
Read further:


Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015


Demonetization: A monumental disaster

James Wilson is a Member of the Mullaperiyar Special Cell, Government of Kerala, India. Who is a civil engineer by profession has presented an extremely detailed and meticulous calculations and inferences on the Demonetization of Indian Currencies.

Just go through the full article brought here , for the  knowledge of the subject is best expressed through a clear and concise presentation by Mr. James Wilson.



A monumental disaster in offing!

Currency in Circulation 

High denomination notes of ₹500 & ₹1000, which is 86.4% of the total currency in circulation ceased to be legal tender due to the demonetisation. RBI denotes these demonetised notes as “Specified Bank Notes” (SBN). As per RBI Annual Report 2015-2016, as of 31/03/2016, the value of the total SBN is ₹14.18 lakh crores. Volume wise it consists of 15707 million ₹500 notes and 6326 million ₹1000 notes, ie, a total of 22033 million notes. Meanwhile, the total currency in circulationvalue wise increased to ₹17.975 Lakh crores (4/11/2016) from ₹16.415 lakh crores (31/03/2016)

Exact information of the amount of SBN as on 8/11/16 is now in public domain, thanks to a question-answer in the Rajya Sabha, which shows 17165 million pieces of ₹500 (₹8.582 lakh crores)and 6858 million pieces of ₹1000 (₹6.858 lakh crores) in circulation (Total Value: ₹15.44 lakh crores Total Volume:24023 million pieces) [So my assumptions in my earlier post  of value of 15.5 lakh crores and volume of 24000 million is almost in the target]. To print and replace 24023 million (24.023 billion) notes is an enormous challenge considering this sheer volume of notes to be printed and capacity of our printing presses.

Capacity of Printing Presses

How can RBI achieve this target with resources at their disposal? 

How much time RBI will take for to print and replace SBN with new notes? 

To understand this, in a pure resources management perspective, we have to examine the output capacity of our currency note printing presses. We have two currency printing presses under Security Printing and Minting Corporation of India Limited (SPMCIL), one at Nashik in Maharastra and the other one in Dewas in Madhya Pradesh. Nashik Press was established in 1928 and Dewas was in 1974. Also two more modern currency printing press were added later to augment the printing capacity, one in Mysore in Karnataka and the other at Salboni in West Bengal under the Bharatiya Reserve Bank Note Mudran Private Limited (BRBNMPL), which were established by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in 1996.

First look at the capacities of Nashik & Dewas presses under SPMCIL. I have relied the Annual Report of the SPMCIL as well as a presentation available on the internet by the Currency Management Wing of the RBI. From the above records, it is inferred that Nashik Press capacity is 5800 million notes per year and Dewas capacity is 2620 million pieces. 

Meanwhile, BRBNMPL’s Mysore & Salboni together can print 16000 million notes in 2 shifts in a year. See the screenshot of BRBNMPL website. So all these four presses can together print 24420 million currency notes in a year and this is closer to the supply RBI getting for last 3 years too. 

So all four presses together having a printing capacity of 66.90 million/day. If we take Mysuru and Salboni alone, this will be 43.84 million/day.

Please note that latter in this discussion, it is using billion instead of million as the volume unit since I made references to the statement given by RBI in billions. 

  • For your understanding please note that:

            1 billion = 1000 million = 100 crores

Printing aborad is out of question

My next exercise was to understand whether we can outsource this currency printing to any high quality security presses abroad. That research lead me to the Report of Committee on Public Undertakings (2012-13) which deliberates “outsourcing of printing of currency notes” as recommendation serial no.14. Selected extract from the above report is reproduced here:

“The Committee also find it pertinent to point out that during printing of currency notes worth 1 lakh crores in three different countries, there was always a grave risk of unauthorized printing of excess currency notes, which would have been unaccounted money. The Committee simply wonder how come a decision was taken to have the currency notes printed by above mentioned companies in three different countries. Logically speaking since all the said three countries are well developed, each country certainly had the capability of undertaking the entire printing assignment. In any case the very thought of India’s currency being printed in three different countries is alarming to say the least. During that particular fateful period our entire economic sovereignty was at stake.

The Committee is concerned of the grave implications of such a move as it has wider ramifications in a multi faceted angle. The danger of destabilizing the economy by the agencies of authorities who could have misused our security parameters vis-à-vis printing of currency notes, the use of such notes which could have been printed in excess could easily have fallen in the hands of unscrupulous elements such as terrorists, extremists and other economic offenders, looms large in our minds. The Committee expresses its strong resentment over such an unprecedented, unconventional and uncalled for measure. The Committee while recommending that SPMCIL be strengthened to undertake the printing and minting of the required currency notes/coins fervently emphasise that outsourcing of printing of currency notes/minting coins should never be resorted to in the future.”

Reply of the Government

Since corporatisation, SPMCIL and BRBNMPL have been meeting the requirement of coins and currency and no import has been resorted to. The concerns and recommendations of the Committee have been carefully noted for future guidance.

[Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs]

( O.M. No.3/8/09-SPMC dated 3rd January, 2013 )”

So this assurance rules out the very question of outsourcing of the currency printing abroad. I don’t think RBI will violate an assurance given to the Committee of Public Undertakings of the Parliament. Hence RBI has to depend on the four presses in our country to meet this enormous demand.

Comparison with demonetisation done in 1977-78

In this context, we have to note that during the demonetisation exercise in 1977-78 only less than 5% of the high value notes were demonetised. It is also important to note that ₹100 note, which was 50.1% of the total currency in circulation was not demonetised during 1977-78. Contrary to the above, this time RBI and Government decided to demonetise ₹500 note, which consists of 47.8% of the value of the total currency in circulation. They also demonetised ₹1000 notes in circulation, thus made 86.4% of value of total currency in circulation redundant, which choked and paralysed the entire cash based economy with a whimsical direction overnight!

₹2000 note – a short shrift solution

Now look at the ₹1000 notes, volume wise its quantity is 6858 million notes. If convert the entire ₹1000 notes to ₹2000 notes, keeping the same value, then the volume will be halved to 3429 million notes to facilitate quick printing and disposal. But there is a catch, RBI has to tweak the ratio between ₹500 and ₹2000 to provide easy change and mobility between these two notes. So obviously, there should be less  volume of ₹2000 notes and more volume of ₹500 notes is mandated to keep the equilibrium of the system. For the time being, let us assume that RBI has gone with a complete swap of ₹1000 with ₹2000 notes totally discarding the mobility in the system.Definitely this is a short shrift exercise without considering the much needed mobility and velocity of the demand of thes various denominations of the currency notes in circulation. In that scenario too, RBI has to print at least 20594 million notes (17615 million ₹500 &+ 3429 million ₹2000) in a short span of time.

Higher denominations will aid hoarding – RBI Study

The elimination of ₹1000 note and introduction of ₹2000 note is really perplexing and the RBI’s explanation made themselves a joke. In this context, invite your attention to RBI Study No. 39 “Modelling Currency Demand in India: An Empirical Study” to see how RBI and Government of India all along resisted to issue high denomination notes even when warranted in a short time to meet the inflation to control, considering the chances of this high denomination currency will be used for hoarding purpose by the black money holders.

The irony is now a high value currency note of ₹2000 is introduced in the guise of controlling hoarding of the very black money, but at the end of the day help the hoarders in transporting and hoarding! This haste and irrational decision was taken without considering the statistical principles of distribution of various denominations in the currency in circulation and also fully side lining the prudent decision to eliminate the chances of hoarding. This short shrift route of going for ₹2000 by RBI without considering any of the above consequences into account and only taking the ease of printing, is a telling reflection of how an Institution like RBI let itself to erode its independent stature to please the political masters!

Printing target – An estimation

I discarded here the essential tweak required for maintain the equilibrium between ₹500 and ₹2000 notes and also the increase of currency required to meet the demand of cash in the economy in the coming months till this disaster is mitigated. Many of Government sympathisers may definitely point that the entire ₹15.44 lakh crores of SBN will not return into the system and there is no need to replace the entire currency. My opinion is that these two factors balance and neutralise each other. Hence for the time being, I decide to go ahead with the figure of 20594 million new notes as our target for printing.

In the initial days, the WhatsApp army were busy in forwarding daring claims that only 50% of the SBN will return into the system. Even our Attorney General told to the Supreme Court that RBI & Government expects only a maximum of ₹12 lakh crores of SBN will be return to the system. Today we are hearing from the media quoting Ministry of Finance sources that around ₹14 lakh crores worth SBN is already returned to the system. Remember that we are still 13 more days away from the date set by Government to deposit the SBN at banks. So its time for RBI & Government to eat the humble pie. It is important to understand that the above cut-off date will not set free RBI’s responsibility to exchange the rest of the currency in circulation at their counters, it only limits the option of depositing/exchanging at banks. That is a detailed matter as it entangled in legal provisions and other issues and hence will be discussed in a future post.

Demonetisation Planning – Rajan or Patel?

To understand the currency printing schedule, first see the letter of transmittal dated 29th August 2016 of the RBI Annual Report 2015-16 signed by Former Governor Raghuram G. Rajan. Kindly note the above date, it is very important. We know that the present Governor Urjit R. Patel assumed office on 4th September 2016.

Now look at the same Annual Report again. Look at Table VIII.4, “Indent and Supply of Bank Notes by BRBNMPL & SPMCIL”. Look at the indent for the year 2016-17, RBI has given an indent for 5725 million ₹500 notes & 2200 million ₹1000 notes along with other lower denomination currency notes. If there was a plan in advance to demonetise these denominations, then why did RBI print and disburse such large quantities of SBN in to circulation? This is nothing but sheer wastage of exchequer’s money.

Moreover, if RBI had such an advance plan to replace the above SBN, they should have devoted their time and energy to print lower denominations notes instead of SBN. Hence it is beyond doubt that the entire demonetisation plan was come into picture after Urjit Patel taken charge. The new denomination note of ₹2000 bear the signature of the new Governor Patel, not of Governor Rajan, which also another explicit evidence to prove that these notes were introduced after Governor Rajan left RBI.

When new currency printing started?

So what is the possible date of starting the new currency printing, yes, after this so called meticulous planning, selling an amazing idea and getting a nod from high echelons to go ahead with the ‘surgical strike’? Many theories are floating in the air about this meticulous planning in the initial days by a certain section of cheerleader media and court jester journalists. I am not ready to buy any of those theories. We learnt from media reports that the printing of the new notes were confined to RBI’sBRBNMPL presses at Mysuru & Salboni. Neither Nashik nor Dewas of SPMCIL were on the loop, may be due to the secrecy of the mission involved. Another reason may be both these presses were already assigned with printing of the lower denomination notes (from ₹100 downward), which is already intended in huge quantities by the annual indent of RBI for FY 2016-17.

Considering all these constraints, let me put a rational date before you considering the resources planning angle. RBI disclosed that they have 2473.2 million ₹2000 in stock for disposal as of 8/11/2016 in response to a RTI query. With the printing capacity of 43.84 million/month of Mysore & Salboni together in 2 shifts, it will take 57 days to print the 2473.2 million notes, that means it started on 12th September 2016. Take another possibility, that RBI took an effort to enhance printing to 3 shifts from 2 shifts, then they can print 65.76 million/month, ie, means it will took 38 days, that means printing started on 1st October 2016 only.

I was really shocked to find that there was not a single ₹500 note was with RBI when they unleashed this demon over the nation! That means RBI unleashed demonetisation with just 32% of the total SBN in circulation, that too a less mobile ₹2000 note stock! They themselves will be aware that within the 50 days window period, they can’t print the rest of the SBN too!

Disbursal of Currency

Then, I look for patterns of disbursal of currency at various dates, which was inferred from the data provided through the press releases by RBI. Look at the table below:

We can see that there was a substantial increase of disbursal of currency between 27/11/06 and 05/12/16 from ₹12589 crores/day to ₹20548 crores/day, this is definitely due to the disbursement of salaries on the first of December. Thereafter, the disbursal drying up substantially in the succeeding period to ₹16000 crores/day. If we take the entire 31 days of demonetisation, the average daily release from 10/11/2016 to 10/12/2016 is ₹14871 crores/day. If the money is disbursed in the above daily average rate, between next 20 days a further ₹2,97,420 crores can be disbursed. Hence Government may be able to disburse a total of ₹7,58,420 crores or a maximum of ₹8,00,000 crores by 30/12/2016. That means just 52% of the total SBN going to be disbursed to us. But even this quantity is doubtful with the present printing woes, which is going to be examined in the subsequent paragraphs.

There is some serious cash delivery issue in the system due to inferior planning and poor judgement from the part of RBI as well as Finance Ministry. Otherwise what is the justification of various new restrictions unleashed day to day basis by RBI without respecting the notification dated 8/11/2016? It is quite depressing to see that even the address to the nation by the Prime Minister is not honoured!

RBI deleting information – why?

While looking for these data, I met with a really shocking finding. RBI published a transcript of the statement given by R. Gandhi, Deputy Governor on 07/12/2016 at its webstie under the title “press releases”. But later it is seen as purged from the RBI website! Meantime, the video of the press conference is still available in the internet ( This really made me curious. What information was there in the above transcript, which forced RBI to delete it from the website, even sacrificing the very institutional credibility? What is there to hide from the public which was not there in the full video coverage of 5th bi-monthly monetary policy press conference 2016-17? Interestingly the RBI which deleted the transcript of R. Gandhi forget to wipe out that from the cache, so one of my friend in twitter grabbed the information from there and shared with me. See that transcript of R. Gandhi here!

It is quite an irony that the very RBI, which now exhorting us to go cashless by embracing digital mode of payment, did not even know the primary lessons of digital literacy of how to purge a document from their system! Look at the highlighted information – this is not available in the video but provided in the transcript, which RBI deleted. What is the relevance of this information? It cna lead you to the printing volume of new notes disbursed by RBI as of 10/12/2016, which they refuse to divulge so far. 

Disbursal of currency denomination wise

Look at the total value of the lower denomination notes of 19.1 million disbursed by RBI from the above. It comes only to ₹1.059 lakh crores! That means the higher denominations notes are ₹3.81 lakh crores minus ₹1.059 lakh crores = ₹2.75 lakh crores. As RBI has not given the volume of high denomination notes, I was not able to decipher the possible numbers of them.

But in the next press conference on 13/12/2016, RBI provided the numbers to decipher the new currency notes in the system. Look at the statement of R. Gandhi, Dy Governor.

Here Gandhi claimed that 19.1 billion notes of lower denomination on 5/12/16 was increased to 20.1 billion on 10/12/16 meanwhile claimed that RBI disbursed 1.7 billion higher denomination notes of ₹2000 & ₹500 notes. As the amount of the total cash disbursed is ₹4.61 lakh crores, it turned out to be a simple mathematical problem to solve. There is a limit for the lower denominations to fluctuate, as we know the denomination wise quantity of 19.1 billion notes in circulation. Then if 19.1 billion lower denominations increased to 20.1 billion notes, two borderline scenarios emerges:

  • If the entire 1 billion volume increase are of ₹100 notes, then total value will be increased by ₹1.159 lakh crores
  • if the entire 1 billion volume increase are of ₹10 notes, then total value will be increased by ₹1.069 lakh crores.
  • That simply means that the value of higher denominations notes will be in a range of ₹3451 crores to ₹3541 crores.
  • This means if the entire higher denomination notes are of  ₹2000 and its volume will fluctuate between 1.7 billion to 1.8 billion.

If Gandhi would not have given the exact volume wise distribution of each lower denominations in that 07/12/2016 in the transcript, we will not be able to emulate these scenarios. My strong feeling is that it is the very reason why RBI later deleted the said transcript from its website.

You can’t introduce more than a couple of million ₹500 notes into this equation, in that case the volume of higher denomination notes will go up from the 1.7 billion! Even after a month after unleashing the demonetisation on our heads RBI was not able to disburse any substantial quantity of ₹500 notes in the circulation, which are the most essential denomination for the reasons I cited in my previous blog post. That is why we are not seeing these notes in the market and feel the burn of cash crunch so badly.  Its shame on RBI to flash a couple of million notes of this ₹500 notes in metro cities and major urban centres for a limited purpose of optics management before the 24×7 electronics media and to flaunt in WhatsApp forwards & re-tweets on social media! It is really sad to see that a reputed professional organisation like RBI is letting down the nation with these type of cheap tricks of optics management rather meeting the pressing demands!

Lower denomination disbursal – a record??

Gandhi told on 7/12/2016 press conference that RBI has provided 19.1 billion lower denomination notes after demonetisation, which is a record as it is more than what reserve bank provided in last 3 years to the system. If we look at indent & supply for last FY year, from the above table, we can see that around 16 billion lower denomination notes were printed then. This FY year also RBI given an indent to print 16.6 billion lower denomination notes and if the presses print according to their capacity, there will be new 12.5 billion notes till 10/12/2016. Along with this quantity, there will be soiled notes which are being collected to dispose during this FY(Kindly note that, last year alone around 13 billion lower denomination soiled notes were disposed off), which are also pushed back to circulation as we see lots of old soiled notes back. Also note that the total number of lower denomination notes in circulation as  on 31/03/2016 was 56.6 billion. It is interesting to note that Gandhi never claimed RBI has printed 19.1 billion notes, instead he only made a tall claim that these notes were a record volume! Media never asked any questions to him and Gandhi barked in glory! I am sorry to say that I can’t digest this all-time record claim of attention diversion by twisting the facts!

Where is that ₹500 note?

Let us come back to the figure of 1.7 billion high denomination notes disbursed by 10/12/2016. This information is quite perplexing when we compare the printing press capacities. We have seen that RBI had a stock of 2.473 billion ₹2000 notes as on 8/11/2016 itself. So if these printing presses working at least 2 shifts/day, there would have been another 1.4 billion pieces of ₹2000 & ₹500 with RBI by 10/12/2016 (32 days x 43.84 = 1403 million). To completely replace, the ₹1000 notes by ₹2000 notes, RBI needed to print 3.429 – 2.473 = 0.956 billion pieces. So RBI should have by 10/12/2016 printed the entire ₹2000 notes to replace the ₹1000 notes. I hope and pray that RBI did not go ahead with another short shrift solution of printing more ₹2000 notes to replace ₹500 notes after done with ₹1000 notes, which will completely disrupt the mobility and balance of the currency in circulation. Why RBI holding the rest 1.729 billion of ₹2000 notes (3.429-1.7=1.729) without disbursing to public?

Also from the above we can find that a quantity of 0.444 billion ₹500 notes (1.4-0.956=0.444) printed after are with RBI, but a few millions are only disbursed to public. It is really perplexing that why RBI is not distributing these ₹500 notes in substantial quantities? This is quite baffling because RBI through its press releases informed that they disbursed ₹500 notes with the following series numbers:

·       without inset

·       with E as inset

·       with L as inset,

·       E and star as inset and

·       with R as inset.

This indicates that various printing presses are put to the task of printing the ₹500 notes, but as we are not seeing much of ₹500 notes in circulation, it is feared that some issues crop up during its printing. Recollect the media reports of two different design ₹500 notes crop up and RBI’s bizarre explanation. RBI informed that up to 10/12/16, they have disbursed 1.7 billion high denomination notes. This will definitely be 1.7 billion ₹2000 notes and a few million ₹500 notes, as I shown above. Also relying above printing calculations & RTI disclosure, we can very well conclude that RBI may have a stock of at least 1.7429 billion ₹2000 notes and  0.444 billion ₹500 notes as of 10/12/2016.

In the above context, let me put some questions to RBI:

  • Why you are not disbursing sufficient ₹500 notes to circulation to ease the mobility crisis?
  • Why you are not disbursing enough ₹2000 notes and imposing unreasonable restrictions on withdrawal for our money deposited in banks? 
  • Inform us whether the above stock of  notes is having any relation with the hoarding of huge quantity of currency notes seized from various parts of the country?
  • Exact quantity of ₹2000 notes and ₹500 notes printed and disbursed so far  
  • Or your printing systems faced any unexpected failure & you are struck?
  • Exact schedule and output of printing of various denomination of notes at various presses under RBI and SPMCIL

When we will get back our currency?

Now we have to consider when we will get back the ₹500 notes demonetised from the system back. As we seen from above that 0.444 billion ₹500 notes would have been printed up to 10/12/16, then how much time RBI will take to print remaining 16.721 billion pieces (17.165-0.444=16.721).

In this context, I am giving you three possible scenarios considering the printing capacity of our four currency printing presses. I have not considered certain constraints here, like additional skilled manpower needed to introduce a 3rd shift for a prolonged period, raw material supply constraints, machinery maintenance, forced plus routine shutdowns and other surprises which can crop up anytime. Then I have not considered additional output (?) possible with the reduced size of new notes too as someone argues. I gone ahead with a perfect printing mechanism with sufficient manpower and resources at disposal. So take this estimation and earliest possible dates with a pinch of salt.

First Scenario

Mysuru & Salboni (3 shifts/day) AND Nashik & Dewas

@88.82 million/day needs 188 days – 16thJune 2017

Second Scenario

Mysuru & Salboni (3 shifts/day) AND Nashik

@ 81.64 million/day needs 204 days – 2nd July 2017

Third Scenario

Mysuru, Salboni (2 shifts/day) & Nashik

@ 59.73 million/day needs 280 days – 16thSeptember 2017

These are the earliest possible dates to replace SBN with new currency in a pure resources management angle.

Looking at the above earliest dates will make anyone shudder, I don’t know when the normalcy of the system can be restored! Remember, our Prime Minister on 8/11/2016 sought us a couple of days to restore the normalcy  This will give you an idea about the planning prowess of the mandarins in RBI and Finance Ministry. Ask ourselves whether we have fallen into a rabbit hole? We Indians still believe in magic and we bear all subjugation as our bad karma or destiny. But here no magic wand is left to create miracles, we are destined to silently suffer this onslaught for half a dozen months too.

Estimation of possible return of SBN

Now look at the way SBN is coming back to the banks. This table extracts information from various press conferences.

This table will explain you why Government & RBI are getting panic and imposing new restrictions like deposits up to ₹5000 to non-KYC accounts and questioning people depositing more than ₹5000 into their KYC accounts. Why we are treated like criminals? Under which legal or constitutional provision Government and RBI arbitrarily gives this police power to the bank authorities to abuse us?

This is becoming a theatre of absurd when the very Government, who is reluctant to reveal to public the names of celebrities and big shots who keep thousands of crores of black money abroad arm twisting the common man and honest tax payers!. Tell us what is the crime committed by us? Are you intimidating and insulting us for believing the Prime Ministers address to the nation on 8/11/2016??

Look at various possibilities on 30/12/2016 (20 days from 10/12/2016)

  • With an average daily inflow of ₹15000 crores, entire SBN valued ₹15.44 lakh crores will return to banks
  • With an average daily inflow of ₹12800 crores, total SBN valued ₹15 lakh crores will return to banks
  • With an average daily inflow of ₹10300 crores, total SBN valued ₹14.5 lakh crores will return to banks

My strong belief is that SBN valued around ₹15 lakh crores will most probably return to the system, rest of the SBN will be trapped in Nepal & Bhutan and other countries for the time being. If ₹15 lakh crores of SBN return, then it will totally shatter and tear away all mighty claims by the Government and RBI that a maximum of ₹11 lakh crores to ₹12 lakh crores of SBN will only return to banks.

Then the entire demonetisation hungama will fall apart as a monumental disaster, yep, its now just a matter of time.. Now the deadline set by our Prime Minister in his 08/11/2016 speech has already expired.

 The above presentation is the hard work of Mr. Member of the Mullaperiyar Special Cell, Government of Kerala. A civil engineer by profession. Associated with construction & management of various hydro electric projects & thermal power projects of KSEB Ltd between 1994-2001. Since 2001, shfited to water resources management & inter state water disputes with special emphasis on the techno-legal aspects. Now working in a consultant role to provide the techno-legal inputs on various inter state water dispute issues & water policy related matters to Kerala State Government.


Read further:

The Trouble With India’s Demonetization Gamble

Demonetization and Freakonomics

Indian Government has No Clues of Black Money in India

Cashless Monetary System means Absolute Power over you

India Came First


Along with thanks and compliments to the sources for the shared data

Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015

A Glimpse into 2017: You and Your Site in the New Year (Part III) — Discover

A Glimpse into 2017: You and Your Site in the New Year

Another set of bloggers share their resolutions and plans for 2017.

In it’s Resolutions series, WordPress asked writers, artists, photographers, poets, and business and website owners: what’s in store for you — and your site — in 2017?

Last week, everyone shared goals here at Discover and The Daily Post. Here’s a final set of resolutions to inspire your own journey in the new year.

To Read the full post Click the link given below:

via A Glimpse into 2017: You and Your Site in the New Year (Part III) — Discover



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Creative Commons Copyright © Arrested Developments 2015